Xi Jinping's Succession

[Randy W]

Like I've said many times - Xi is NOT President for life - he will face re-election in 2022.

 

This is from Made in China Journal - a good read if you're interested in learning more about China's politics

 

Xi Jinping’s Succession: What Did the West Get Wrong?

 

All this because in March President Xi Jinping, accompanied by French President Macron, appeared to have exhibited a ‘suspiciously’ slow walk when inspecting the guard of honour in Paris. And then, in an incident that apparently reaffirms the earlier suspicions, he executed a laboured descent into (and ascent from) his chair when meeting the press following the EU-China Summit in the same week. Concerned observers passionately examined the President’s gait, posture, walking pace, and micro-expressions from the two-minute video clips released by the media, and hastened to conclude that the President is in poor health. This episode offers a glimmer of hope for the many opponents of Xi and his policies: a premature change of leadership.

 

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The Head of the State Cannot Dictate Anything

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The Pairing of the Head of the Party and the Head of the State

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When Does the Head of the Party Retire?

Despite the absence of a term limit for the HoP, few of them have managed to retain that office for life. Some of them were voted out of office at Party Congresses and some retired seemingly of their own volition.

 

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Who Enthroned Xi Jinping?

 

Disappointingly, no one who knows the answers to these questions would be at liberty to say. The same logic applies to most issues raised above. There is no question that Xi Jinping is, like some of his predecessors, a man of tremendous power of agency. However, to characterise selected discrete past instances as attested precedents, and then to treat any disparity from the perceived precedents as evidence of norm breaking is like calling any change in the climate a violation of the cosmic order. It not only dulls our understanding of the dynamism of power relations at the top of the Party and accords an exaggerated magnitude of power of agency to individual leaders, but also distracts us from paying more attention to other aspects of the operation of the Party where binding norms do exist.

 

 

 

 

[Randy W]

This is from Nikkei Asian Review

 

Xi poses a riddle and reignites speculation about his successors

Talk of a 'President Chen Min'er' and 'Premier Hu Chunhua' swirl in capital

 

 

 

 

The bombshell was the presence of Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, 56, at Xi's side during the inspection tour. While Hu is technically in charge of poverty eradication, the main objective of the tour, the Chongqing location and the images of Xi flanked by Chen and Hu sent shock waves.

 

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Back in March 2018, Xi revised the Chinese constitution, which had limited a president to serving two five-year terms. By striking the limit, Xi allowed himself, in effect, to stay in office for the rest of his life.

But Xi's highhandedness generated a strong backlash within the party, especially among elders who remember the 1966-1976 Cultural Revolution, which led to Mao Zedong's calamitous dictatorship.

Xi has significantly consolidated power with a blistering anti-corruption campaign. But criticism of his "dictatorial ways" within the party has a politically debilitating impact; it hits him like a body blow.

Xi is now taking another blow, from the U.S., which is damaging his economic management reputation. The situation is serious enough that it could eventually cause Xi to lose his political stamina and erode his unrivaled power.

Hemmed in, Xi served up the succession riddle. But it is likely more of a political tool than riddle, one Xi is wielding as the party begins to anticipate its next national congress, in 2022.

 

[Greg.D.]

Xi's move to at least leave open the possibility to hold his titles past the end of his second term is at least consistent with his passion for continuing Mao's "revolution". No surprise from that perspective. Succession has been normal so far ... a catastrophic departure would have to invoke a Plan B no one has seen yet. He is definitely a believer in control - but only to get through another day. Not sure if any president could navigate the next 5, 10 years without some difficulty.

[Allon]

Will be interesting to see if he lasts through the current trade war, and if not, what would happen. The General Secretary of the Party rarely involves himself in economic issues and follows the Premier's counsel, Li Keqian, the titular head of government.

 

China always has a nice story to tell......