Behind the Taiwan issue

[Randy W]

An embarrassing defeat 73 years ago is a preview of the problems China would face in an attack on Taiwan today

• The Chinese Communist troops who stormed Kinmen island in October 1949 expected a quick victory.
• Instead, the Chinese Nationalist forces defending the island routed the attackers.
• The battle illustrates some of the hurdles Beijing would still face if it tried to invade Taiwan.

from Business Insider via Yahoo News

A monument to the 1949 Battle of Guningtou in Kinmen, Taiwan, on February 3, 2021.An Rong Xu/Getty Images

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Around 1:30 a.m. on October 25, 1949, some 9,000 Chinese Communist soldiers stormed ashore on the island of Kinmen, barely 6 miles from China's coast.

They were the first of what was meant to be a 20,000-strong People's Liberation Army force sent to capture the island from Chiang Kai-shek's Chinese Nationalist forces, known as the KMT.

Fresh off a string of victories and with high morale, the PLA expected the battle to be its next triumph, bringing even more territory into the newly established People's Republic of China and moving the PLA one step closer to its final target: the KMT bastion of Taiwan.

PLA commanders believed the defending force to be weak with low morale and expected the fighting to be over within three days. The timing was the only thing the PLA got right.

Three days later, Kinmen was still in KMT hands, three PLA regiments had been effectively annihilated, and the Chinese Communist forces had suffered the first check on their seemingly unstoppable advance.

 

 

[Randy W]

Perhaps more than you'd really want to know about the cross-strait politics and relations, but  here's Lei's discussion.

Taiwan’s ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party or DPP suffered a major loss in the 2022 Taiwan elections. The strategy designed by the Party chairwoman, President Tsai Ing-wen, did not win public support. For those of us who don’t follow Taiwan politics but care about China-Taiwan relations in the context of geopolitical tensions, we want know if the DPP’s loss indicates any shift in public sentiment toward the mainland and the CCP, and if China’s influence had any impact on the elections. I talked to a Taiwan expert to get his opinion on the subject.

 

 

[Randy W]

Nato chief says China ‘learning lessons’ from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

What's happening today in Europe could happen in East Asia tomorrow, said Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg as he spoke about the war in Ukraine.

from the SCMP on Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/scmp/videos/907289980314527/

 

 

Nato chief says China ‘learning lessons’ from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

What's happening today in Europe could happen in East Asia tomorrow, said Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg as he spoke about the war in Ukraine.

Posted by South China Morning Post on Tuesday, January 31, 2023

 

[Randy W]

U.S. to Expand Troop Presence in Taiwan for Training Against China Threat
The Pentagon is helping Taiwan focus on tactics and weapon systems that would make the island harder to assault

from the WSJ (paywalled)

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The U.S. plans to deploy between 100 and 200 troops to the island in the coming months, up from roughly 30 there a year ago, according to U.S. officials. The larger force will expand a training program the Pentagon has taken pains not to publicize as the U.S. works to provide Taipei with the capabilities it needs to defend itself without provoking Beijing.

 . . .

Beyond training on Taiwan, the Michigan National Guard is also training a contingent of the Taiwanese military, including during annual exercises with multiple countries at Camp Grayling in northern Michigan, according to people familiar with the training.

 

 

 

[Randy W]

China proffers 'peaceful reunification', Taiwan says respect our democracy

from Reuters

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Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledged "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan on Sunday as well as resolute steps to oppose Taiwan independence, with Taipei responding that Beijing should respect the Taiwanese people's commitment to democracy and freedom.

 . . .

The government should implement our party's policy for "resolving the Taiwan question" and "take resolute steps to oppose Taiwan independence and promote reunification", he told the roughly 3,000 delegates at Beijing's enormous Great Hall of the People.

 . . .

Li, in separate comments on defence, said the armed forces should boost combat preparedness, though did not mention Taiwan within that context.

Taiwan's China-policy making Mainland Affairs Council responded to what it called Li's "reaffirmation" of China's Taiwan policy by saying Beijing should face up to the reality that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are "not subordinate to each other".

 . . .

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen has repeatedly offered talks with China, which have been rebuffed as Beijing believes her to be a separatist.

 

 

[Randy W]

As Taiwan embraces its Indigenous people, it rebuffs China

from CNN

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Avai Yata'uyungana was just 12 when the soldiers dragged his father away to be executed.

More than 70 years later, he remembers that feeling of helplessness, confusion and fear as if it were yesterday.

"On that day, the military surrounded our family home," recalled the retired schoolteacher, age 83. "The county magistrate came to our village and told everyone that my father was engaged in corruption. (After they shot him) rumors spread about the allegations against him and my family went into hardship."

His father Uyongu was a leader of the Tsou, one of Taiwan's Indigenous tribes, and among the thousands of islanders arrested in the years following the end of the Chinese Civil War and charged with collaborating with Mao Zedong's Communist Party.

At the time, fears about Communist influence on the island were at their height; Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists had only recently set up a government in exile there after being driven out of the Chinese mainland by Mao's forces. Paranoia was high and the fledgling administration saw local leaders as a potential threat to their grip on power.

But Uyongu's real "crime" was not that he had collaborated with the Communists -- a charge Taiwan's government posthumously cleared him of in 2020. His real offense was that he had been lobbying for greater autonomy for the island's original inhabitants.

 

 

[Randy W]

US warship sails through Taiwan Strait following China war games
USS Milius conducted a ‘routine’ transit through the Taiwan Strait to demonstrate US commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific, navy says.

from AL Jazeera 

USS Milius conducts operations at an undisclosed location in the South China Sea in this handout picture released on April 10, 2023 [File: US Navy/Handout via Reuters]

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China said on Monday that it had tracked a US warship through the Taiwan Strait, adding that Washington had “hyped up” the transit.

Colonel Shi Yi, a Chinese military spokesman, said troops in the area “remain on a high level of alert at all times and will resolutely defend national sovereignty and security as well as regional peace and stability”.

 . . .

Last week, the USS Milius sailed near one of the most important man-made and Chinese-controlled islands in the South China Sea, Mischief Reef.

Beijing denounced it as illegal.

 

 

 

[Randy W]

Japan lodges diplomatic protest over Chinese envoy’s ‘pit of fire’ warning on Taiwan

• Japan’s foreign minister calls ambassador Wu Jianghao’s warnings against interference ‘extremely inappropriate’
• China ‘is not and will not be a threat to Japan’, Wu says

from the SCMP

Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Wednesday that Tokyo is mulling a diplomatic protest against Beijing after the Chinese envoy’s remarks on Taiwan. Photo: AP
 

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“The remarks of the Chinese ambassador to Tokyo … are extremely inappropriate for an ambassador,” Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Wednesday during a House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee meeting.

Hayashi was referring to a warning from China’s envoy to Japan, Wu Jianghao, on April 28 that Japan should not interfere with Beijing’s dealings with Taiwan.

“It is absurd and dangerous to clamour for the so-called ‘whatever happens to Taiwan means what happens to Japan’. It is illogical and harmful to conflate matters that are purely China’s internal affairs with Japan’s security concerns,” Wu said.

“If Japan is tied to the chariot of splitting China, the Japanese people will be led into the pit of fire.”

 

 

 

[Randy W]

 . . . and, as a result.

Chinese warships sail around Japan as tensions rise ahead of G7 summit

Type 055 guided-missile destroyers Nanchang (101) and Lhasa (102) at China's Qingdao port on April 20, 2023.

from CNN

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Japan’s Defense Ministry on Thursday released a map showing the Type 055 guided missile destroyer Lhasa, one of the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s most powerful warships, leading a four-ship flotilla that also included a smaller destroyer, a frigate and a supply ship on the clockwise circumnavigation.

The Japanese map shows the voyage began April 30 in the Tsushima Strait between South Korea and Japan, progressed through the Tsugaru Strait at the northern tip of Hokkaido on May 5 and 6 and then was in the Izu island chain south of Tokyo on Thursday.

In a story published after the Japanese Defense Ministry release Thursday, China’s state-run Global Times linked the flotilla’s journey to “Japan’s recent provocative remarks” about Taiwan, the democratically ruled island over which the Chinese Communist Party claims sovereignty despite never having ruled it.

“While the voyage is likely a routine PLA Navy far sea exercise that does not violate any international law or target any third party, it could be seen as a strong message to Japan,” the Global Times report said, citing Chinese experts.

 

 

 

[Randy W]

Louder and clearer: how Xiamen on the Taiwan Strait front line is heeding the call for civil defence

• Citizens in the coastal city learn to find their closest shelter and distinguish between different air strike alarms
• Exercise is part of a bigger push to transform the national defence system into a ‘war-fighting’ model

from the SCMP

Primary school students cover their heads and rush downstairs from their classrooms during the annual air defence exercises in Xiamen, Fujian province, on May 10. Photo: Imaginechina

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Authorities in the coastal city of Xiamen renewed their annual citywide air defence exercises this year, with more than 600,000 people involved in a drill amid heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

The drill is the first since an overhaul of national mobilisation efforts and the exercise appeared more prominent – and louder – than before.

“ was lying in bed and thought a Taiwan Strait war broke out,” a user wrote on the social media platform Weibo as the an air raid alarm filled the city on May 10.

Another user said publicity for this year’s air-raid warning test was greater than previous years, with banners and a “propaganda wall” placed in his neighbourhood.

The air strike alarm test has been held annually in Xiamen since 2001, but the exercise last week was the first since the reform of the country’s national defence mobilisation system, which is transforming mainland China to a “warfighting” model.

 

 

 

[Randy W]

Another interesting video from Lei's Real Talk

A Xi Jinping supporter reveals why the CCP wants to attack Taiwan

Previous Chinese communist leaders launched wars for hidden, ulterior motives. Why does Xi Jinping want to attack Taiwan? What does he want to accomplish with such a risky operation? Let’s hear the 10 reasons given by one of the CCP's diehard supporters. The war will allow the Chinese leader to obtain power externally and solidify internal control. 

 

Edited June 14, 2023 by Randy W (see edit history)

[Randy W]

Don’t ‘act blindly’ on Taiwan: Beijing should resist US pressure and stay own course, policy influencer says

• Sun Yafu, deputy head of cross-strait affairs group, says Beijing should strive for peaceful reunification while preparing for military struggle
• The remarks offer rare glimpse into mainland China’s strategy regarding strained ties with Taipei

from the SCMP 

Sun Yafu, former deputy head of Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office, says mainland China has the “moral high ground” when it comes to national reunification. Photo: Weibo
 

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Sun served as deputy head of the mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Office from 2004 to 2013 and remains deeply involved in Beijing’s policymaking.

“In the current situation where opponents are surrounded and pressure is increasing, we should neither be anxious nor act blindly … We should not be shaken by increased pressure,” he said.

“[We should] adhere to the direction and efforts of peaceful reunification, and at the same time strengthen preparations for military struggle.”

Sun’s remarks offered a rare look into Beijing’s strategic and tactical thinking when it comes to handling its strained ties with Taipei.

 

 

 

 

[Randy W]

Because . . . it's not really an internal matter for China to decide - it's all about America! Maybe they can distract the US in Korea!

The dangerous myopia of the US playing the Taiwan card
Washington seems to forget that while it can make trouble across the Taiwan Strait, Beijing can mess up the Korean peninsula just as badly

 

from the SCMP Opinion - Alex Lo

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US and other Western hawks think they are clever by exploiting secessionist sentiments in Taiwan. For them, it’s just another card up their sleeve in the new cold war to contain China, along with myriad other strategies. They think Ukraine has given them the perfect optic to play fast and loose with “one China” and cast Beijing in an aggressive light.

They don’t know what they are doing. The more they play up the Taiwan card, the more they endanger South Korea. That is, if I am not mistaken, the meaning of a brilliant new column by Italian sinologist Francesco Sisci, who is also a researcher at the Renmin University of China in Beijing.

 . . .

Virtually all the potential conflicts that China could currently get sucked into, say, a war over Taiwan; another big fight with India in the Himalayas; and conflicts in the South China Sea with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, or Indonesia, or any combination thereof, the least costly and most strategic is another Korean conflict in which it can pretend neutrality.

“It is impossible to assess Chinese intentions on all these borders,” Sisci wrote. “However, a war in the Korean peninsula could be less risky and more advantageous to Beijing in the present situation.

“If North Korean forces were to start a bombardment of Seoul and move infantry and tanks over the ceasefire line, it could procure the most significant damage to the Western world with the least pain to China.”

 

 

Edited September 11, 2023 by Randy W (see edit history)

[Randy W]

PLA aircraft carrier Shandong makes Taiwan ‘show of force’ days after US, Canadian warships cross strait

• The Shandong sailed just 60 nautical miles off Taiwan’s southernmost tip, island’s defence ministry says in statement on Monday
• Sail-by comes after US and Canadian warships carry out Taiwan Strait freedom of navigation crossing condemned by the PLA

from the SCMP

The Shandong has sailed through the Taiwan Strait several times, including reportedly 200 nautical miles off southern Taiwan on its way to the western Pacific for training in April. Photo: Handout
 

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The passage, cautiously monitored by the Taiwanese military, came two days after the PLA condemned a Taiwan Strait transit by US and Canadian warships as an open challenge to Beijing’s claim that the channel is an internal waterway.

The warship was apparently accompanied by more than a dozen PLA aircraft, according to the Taiwanese defence ministry, which reported sighting the Shandong near the island earlier on Monday.

 . . .

It was the first time the Shandong had come so close to the island.

 

 

[Randy W]

Some in Congress want to cut Ukraine aid and boost Taiwan’s. But Taiwan sees its fate tied to Kyiv’s

from AP News

FILE - Taiwan's chief U.S. envoy Hsiao Bi-Khim speaks during an interview with The Associated Press at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Washington, Friday, Jan. 20, 2023. “Ukraine’s survival is Taiwan’s survival. Ukraine’s success is Taiwan’s success,” Taiwan’s diplomat in the U.S., Hsiao Bi-Khim, said in May at the Sedona Forum hosted by the McCain Institute. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

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To Rep. Mike Collins, China is a bigger threat to the United States than Russia. So the Georgia Republican has voted against providing military aid to Ukraine as he advocates for doing more to arm Taiwan, the self-governed island that’s at risk of military aggression from Beijing.

For Collins and other Republican lawmakers, Taiwan and Ukraine are effectively rivals for a limited pool of U.S. military assistance. But that’s not necessarily how Taiwan and many of its supporters see it. They view Taiwan’s fate as closely linked to that of Ukraine as it struggles to push back a Russian invasion.

They say China is watching closely to see if the United States has the political stamina to support an ally in a prolonged, costly war. The U.S. aid to Ukraine also has led to weapons manufacturers stepping up production — something that could benefit Taiwan in a clash with China.

“Ukraine’s survival is Taiwan’s survival. Ukraine’s success is Taiwan’s success,” Taiwan’s diplomat in the U.S., Hsiao Bi-Khim, said in May at the Sedona Forum hosted by the McCain Institute.