david_dawei Posted June 2, 2006 Report Share Posted June 2, 2006 With the uncertain delay that could be caused by IMBRA... Here is a reminder of delays that members have endured. This time I will not make any reference to names (as I did some 6 months ago), as some are active. The delays reflected here are the more extremes... usually 5 months over average. There are plenty who are in that 1-4 months over average and I don't want to downplay their wait. As well, the K1s are usually the fastest and some of their delays may put them on average the same as a CR1... but a delay is a delay... so here's to all of them, but only a few listed... CR1.....14 months….waiting P4 CR1.....16 months….IV set CR1.....18 months….IV set CR1.....19 months….blue slip CR1.....23 months….waiting P4 K1......14 months….passed K1......15 months….IV set K1......15 months….waiting P4 K1......16 months….waiting P4 K1......17 months….passed K1......18 months….passed K1......19 months….passed K1......22 months….passed K1......24 months….passed K3......17 months….waiting P4 Link to comment
miker32us Posted June 13, 2006 Report Share Posted June 13, 2006 With the uncertain delay that could be caused by IMBRA... Here is a reminder of delays that members have endured. This time I will not make any reference to names (as I did some 6 months ago), as some are active. The delays reflected here are the more extremes... usually 5 months over average. There are plenty who are in that 1-4 months over average and I don't want to downplay their wait. As well, the K1s are usually the fastest and some of their delays may put them on average the same as a CR1... but a delay is a delay... so here's to all of them, but only a few listed... CR1.....14 months….waiting P4 CR1.....16 months….IV set CR1.....18 months….IV set CR1.....19 months….blue slip CR1.....23 months….waiting P4 K1......14 months….passed K1......15 months….IV set K1......15 months….waiting P4 K1......16 months….waiting P4 K1......17 months….passed K1......18 months….passed K1......19 months….passed K1......22 months….passed K1......24 months….passed K3......17 months….waiting P4 220860[/snapback]David, Are you getting your P1->P2->P3->P4->P5 dates from CFL members? Could some of these delays be explained by the petitioner not sending in the requested information? Are these all waiting for an interview at a US Embassy in China or elsewhere in the Asian world? I am just trying to understand these stats better. Link to comment
Guest ShaQuaNew Posted June 13, 2006 Report Share Posted June 13, 2006 With the uncertain delay that could be caused by IMBRA... Here is a reminder of delays that members have endured. This time I will not make any reference to names (as I did some 6 months ago), as some are active. The delays reflected here are the more extremes... usually 5 months over average. There are plenty who are in that 1-4 months over average and I don't want to downplay their wait. As well, the K1s are usually the fastest and some of their delays may put them on average the same as a CR1... but a delay is a delay... so here's to all of them, but only a few listed... CR1.....14 months….waiting P4 CR1.....16 months….IV set CR1.....18 months….IV set CR1.....19 months….blue slip CR1.....23 months….waiting P4 K1......14 months….passed K1......15 months….IV set K1......15 months….waiting P4 K1......16 months….waiting P4 K1......17 months….passed K1......18 months….passed K1......19 months….passed K1......22 months….passed K1......24 months….passed K3......17 months….waiting P4 220860[/snapback]David, Are you getting your P1->P2->P3->P4->P5 dates from CFL members? Could some of these delays be explained by the petitioner not sending in the requested information? Are these all waiting for an interview at a US Embassy in China or elsewhere in the Asian world? I am just trying to understand these stats better.223818[/snapback]David, I'm a little confused also. I'm guessing that you've established some sort of criteria for determining whether or not a visa is delayed. What criteria are you using? Perhaps when a K1 petition takes longer than 14 months from submission to the interview? Or, perhaps you have established a mean for each visa type. By the way, thanks for all your hard work compiling this data. We have an incredible resource here that is unequaled by any other immigration website. Link to comment
miker32us Posted June 13, 2006 Report Share Posted June 13, 2006 With the uncertain delay that could be caused by IMBRA... Here is a reminder of delays that members have endured. This time I will not make any reference to names (as I did some 6 months ago), as some are active. The delays reflected here are the more extremes... usually 5 months over average. There are plenty who are in that 1-4 months over average and I don't want to downplay their wait. As well, the K1s are usually the fastest and some of their delays may put them on average the same as a CR1... but a delay is a delay... so here's to all of them, but only a few listed... CR1.....14 months….waiting P4 CR1.....16 months….IV set CR1.....18 months….IV set CR1.....19 months….blue slip CR1.....23 months….waiting P4 K1......14 months….passed K1......15 months….IV set K1......15 months….waiting P4 K1......16 months….waiting P4 K1......17 months….passed K1......18 months….passed K1......19 months….passed K1......22 months….passed K1......24 months….passed K3......17 months….waiting P4 220860[/snapback]David, Are you getting your P1->P2->P3->P4->P5 dates from CFL members? Could some of these delays be explained by the petitioner not sending in the requested information? Are these all waiting for an interview at a US Embassy in China or elsewhere in the Asian world? I am just trying to understand these stats better.223818[/snapback]David, I'm a little confused also. I'm guessing that you've established some sort of criteria for determining whether or not a visa is delayed. What criteria are you using? Perhaps when a K1 petition takes longer than 14 months from submission to the interview? Or, perhaps you have established a mean for each visa type. By the way, thanks for all your hard work compiling this data. We have an incredible resource here that is unequaled by any other immigration website.223840[/snapback]I also want to thank David for taking the time to compile all of this data. Everyone should appreciate all the time it takes to detemine how to extract, maintain and display such widely varying information. Link to comment
david_dawei Posted June 14, 2006 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2006 With the uncertain delay that could be caused by IMBRA... Here is a reminder of delays that members have endured. This time I will not make any reference to names (as I did some 6 months ago), as some are active. The delays reflected here are the more extremes... usually 5 months over average. There are plenty who are in that 1-4 months over average and I don't want to downplay their wait. As well, the K1s are usually the fastest and some of their delays may put them on average the same as a CR1... but a delay is a delay... so here's to all of them, but only a few listed... CR1.....14 months?waiting P4 CR1.....16 months?IV set CR1.....18 months?IV set CR1.....19 months?blue slip CR1.....23 months?waiting P4 K1......14 months?passed K1......15 months?IV set K1......15 months?waiting P4 K1......16 months?waiting P4 K1......17 months?passed K1......18 months?passed K1......19 months?passed K1......22 months?passed K1......24 months?passed K3......17 months?waiting P4 220860[/snapback]David, Are you getting your P1->P2->P3->P4->P5 dates from CFL members? Could some of these delays be explained by the petitioner not sending in the requested information? Are these all waiting for an interview at a US Embassy in China or elsewhere in the Asian world? I am just trying to understand these stats better.223818[/snapback]David, I'm a little confused also. I'm guessing that you've established some sort of criteria for determining whether or not a visa is delayed. What criteria are you using? Perhaps when a K1 petition takes longer than 14 months from submission to the interview? Or, perhaps you have established a mean for each visa type. By the way, thanks for all your hard work compiling this data. We have an incredible resource here that is unequaled by any other immigration website.223840[/snapback]well Jesse.... that's the question I hoped I would not be asked.... Yes... I decide (unilaterally) what the cutoff is for an "outlier"... The final post of the graphs are adjusted a little from previously post estimates.. but in effect, I look at all the cases for the same visa and decide which times are beyond the average, due to some delay. Then I assign which number should be used to define an "outlier". If the average left after the outlier is not 'good enough' or close enough, then I will push the assigned number a little.... to get the average which I think best reflects the visa type. I'm sure it sounds a little too subjective, but it's based on a critical analysis of the data to discard those that are stuck in a delay and those who would get through the process without the delay. I guess the outlier is my choice... based on the data... Link to comment
david_dawei Posted June 15, 2006 Author Report Share Posted June 15, 2006 With the uncertain delay that could be caused by IMBRA... Here is a reminder of delays that members have endured. This time I will not make any reference to names (as I did some 6 months ago), as some are active. The delays reflected here are the more extremes... usually 5 months over average. There are plenty who are in that 1-4 months over average and I don't want to downplay their wait. As well, the K1s are usually the fastest and some of their delays may put them on average the same as a CR1... but a delay is a delay... so here's to all of them, but only a few listed... CR1.....14 months?waiting P4 CR1.....16 months?IV set CR1.....18 months?IV set CR1.....19 months?blue slip CR1.....23 months?waiting P4 K1......14 months?passed K1......15 months?IV set K1......15 months?waiting P4 K1......16 months?waiting P4 K1......17 months?passed K1......18 months?passed K1......19 months?passed K1......22 months?passed K1......24 months?passed K3......17 months?waiting P4 220860[/snapback]David, Are you getting your P1->P2->P3->P4->P5 dates from CFL members? Could some of these delays be explained by the petitioner not sending in the requested information? Are these all waiting for an interview at a US Embassy in China or elsewhere in the Asian world? I am just trying to understand these stats better.223818[/snapback]David, I'm a little confused also. I'm guessing that you've established some sort of criteria for determining whether or not a visa is delayed. What criteria are you using? Perhaps when a K1 petition takes longer than 14 months from submission to the interview? Or, perhaps you have established a mean for each visa type. By the way, thanks for all your hard work compiling this data. We have an incredible resource here that is unequaled by any other immigration website.223840[/snapback]I guess to answer your question again... The outlier is applied to something that has a published average.. So there is an 'outlier limit': - for P3-P4: prodominately used for K#s, and helps to capture those in a namecheck delay; This outlier limit is also used for P3-IV calculations.- NVC out-P4: prodominately used for CR1s (since their P3 is differs) and this helps to show any NVC delay--so also used for K#s for this average [adjustment] as well...- Sub-IV: Outlier used for it's own average... The reason this cannot simply be used as an 'outlier driver' for all measurments is that someone (like you), might of been slowed at the USCIS stage, but this is not a P3-P4 outlier.. your P3-P4 time would be used to determine if you were a P3-P4 outlier. For P4-IV, I don't use an outlier calculation.. doesn't appear that anyone really gets an overly unusually delay.. if there is a delay by visa type then it is readily seen by simply looking at the visa types... SO, here's an example for Sub-IV, for K1s: As you can guess, there is actually a wide range of [low to high] days for Sub-IV: 152-741. The overall average for all K1s is about 280 days... but with this wide range of the process, I want to make sure that I capture only true delays, not people who simply were slow at returning stuff, or had a snafu or two in mailing... These need to stay in the average since there will be others who do the same. SO I reviewed the cases, say over 320 days (slightly a month over average), to help establish an outlier limit. If I set it too low, the average is too optimistic; if I set it high, I am maybe too conservative, and don't feel realistic. I settled on an outlier limit of 350 days, which adjusted the K1 new average to 243 days. Normally, I would want to test this average with future cases and adjust it if needed.. with the IMBRA issues, I'm sure we'll see an adjustment... Link to comment
Guest ShaQuaNew Posted June 15, 2006 Report Share Posted June 15, 2006 It's about time you got busy. Seems like we've been paying you and getting nothing... Link to comment
artmill4 Posted June 16, 2006 Report Share Posted June 16, 2006 With the uncertain delay that could be caused by IMBRA... Here is a reminder of delays that members have endured. This time I will not make any reference to names (as I did some 6 months ago), as some are active. The delays reflected here are the more extremes... usually 5 months over average. There are plenty who are in that 1-4 months over average and I don't want to downplay their wait. As well, the K1s are usually the fastest and some of their delays may put them on average the same as a CR1... but a delay is a delay... so here's to all of them, but only a few listed... CR1.....14 months?waiting P4 CR1.....16 months?IV set CR1.....18 months?IV set CR1.....19 months?blue slip CR1.....23 months?waiting P4 K1......14 months?passed K1......15 months?IV set K1......15 months?waiting P4 K1......16 months?waiting P4 K1......17 months?passed K1......18 months?passed K1......19 months?passed K1......22 months?passed K1......24 months?passed K3......17 months?waiting P4 220860[/snapback]David, Are you getting your P1->P2->P3->P4->P5 dates from CFL members? Could some of these delays be explained by the petitioner not sending in the requested information? Are these all waiting for an interview at a US Embassy in China or elsewhere in the Asian world? I am just trying to understand these stats better.223818[/snapback]David, I'm a little confused also. I'm guessing that you've established some sort of criteria for determining whether or not a visa is delayed. What criteria are you using? Perhaps when a K1 petition takes longer than 14 months from submission to the interview? Or, perhaps you have established a mean for each visa type. By the way, thanks for all your hard work compiling this data. We have an incredible resource here that is unequaled by any other immigration website.223840[/snapback]I guess to answer your question again... The outlier is applied to something that has a published average.. So there is an 'outlier limit': - for P3-P4: prodominately used for K#s, and helps to capture those in a namecheck delay; This outlier limit is also used for P3-IV calculations.- NVC out-P4: prodominately used for CR1s (since their P3 is differs) and this helps to show any NVC delay--so also used for K#s for this average [adjustment] as well...- Sub-IV: Outlier used for it's own average... The reason this cannot simply be used as an 'outlier driver' for all measurments is that someone (like you), might of been slowed at the USCIS stage, but this is not a P3-P4 outlier.. your P3-P4 time would be used to determine if you were a P3-P4 outlier. For P4-IV, I don't use an outlier calculation.. doesn't appear that anyone really gets an overly unusually delay.. if there is a delay by visa type then it is readily seen by simply looking at the visa types... SO, here's an example for Sub-IV, for K1s: As you can guess, there is actually a wide range of [low to high] days for Sub-IV: 152-741. The overall average for all K1s is about 280 days... but with this wide range of the process, I want to make sure that I capture only true delays, not people who simply were slow at returning stuff, or had a snafu or two in mailing... These need to stay in the average since there will be others who do the same. SO I reviewed the cases, say over 320 days (slightly a month over average), to help establish an outlier limit. If I set it too low, the average is too optimistic; if I set it high, I am maybe too conservative, and don't feel realistic. I settled on an outlier limit of 350 days, which adjusted the K1 new average to 243 days. Normally, I would want to test this average with future cases and adjust it if needed.. with the IMBRA issues, I'm sure we'll see an adjustment...224476[/snapback]David I am still confused. Gene Link to comment
david_dawei Posted June 16, 2006 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2006 Gene.. you skated through your visa... I'm not sure what good it's going to do now to know this.. but let's give it a shot.. ---------- Let's say that 100 people have filed K1s and I'm tracking days between Submission and IV, and P3 - P4. If I do an average of everyone, then we'll maybe see sub-IV as 280 days. The reason this is so high is because of a few delayed through the process and are pulling the average too high (the highest in the group is 741 days and clearly we don't want to include that case as part of the average).. these are called the "outliers" since they are really too far from a reasonable average time of the majority of cases. By removing a few of the outliers, a new average can be arrived at , based on say the remaining 90 cases, which now settles at 243 days. SO this new [adjusted] average would be considered what most cases can expect, barring any usually long delays... ---- Let's say that one of these outliers above had a delay at USCIS/CSC... well, it would not make sense to take them out of the P3-P4 averages if they didn't have an unusally delay at P3-P4... Only if someone has a long delay (ie: Namecheck) in that period will they become an outlier for P3-P4. So, for P3-P4, we might expect only about 5-6 outliers (as opposed to 10 outliers for the sub-IV since this latter one covers the whole process and will naturally have more). So the new adjusted P3-P4 average might be based on 95 of the cases... ---- Link to comment
artmill4 Posted June 18, 2006 Report Share Posted June 18, 2006 It's about time you got busy. Seems like we've been paying you and getting nothing...224478[/snapback]All the numbers and averages and time tables you put together are really good information. I guess when that side of my brain was suppose to have developed I turned over and it simply didn’t happen. I hope the new people to CFL get some insight, from all your work, what they might expect. Link to comment
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