name check completed

[DocMartin817]

I called DOS this morning and asked about the interview date for Liwen. The lady who I talked to was nice and said that no interview date had been set yet. I then asked if the name check was completed yet and she looked it up and said yes. So I asked her if she knew what date the name check was done and she looked again. What she told me was that she could not tell when the name check was completed but that she became eligible on March 3rd. That was the date I received from my email response to Guangzhou where they said she was documentarily qualified. So I guess what I am saying is that what I recorded as the P3 being entered into the computer (which a previous call to DOS had led me to believe it was only been entered and the name check was not complete), means that my March 3rd date is a reflection of everything good to go and all we do now is wait for the interview. Liwen had sent the P3 back on Feb. 3rd, so it seems to me that the name check went very fast. I guess only time will tell if I am getting accurate information and the proof will be when we receive the interview date, which I still guestimate as some time in late July or early August

[david_dawei]

The last two very fast P3 to interviews were sent same time.. So don't be so surprised if there's a surprise in the mail for you.. but don't get hopes up either...

[DocMartin817]

i know, I have been tracking the latest interviews too. I am wondering if the reason they have such early interviews is that there were some cancellations and they are filling in the empty time slots.

[david_dawei]

i know, I have been tracking the latest interviews too. I am wondering if the reason they have such early interviews is that there were some cancellations and they are filling in the empty time slots.

yea..this type of thing is going to get us all guessing !!! I think this is as reasonable to think than things are somehow speeding up. THey don't move until June 22(?).

[nooneufo]

Your name check completed on 03/03/05 is reasonable. Based on the few other name checks I have, your is 89 days projected. Within average. Previous data suggests that 90 days is the minimum allowed for the name check to be returned complete. If it comes back sooner, you still have to wait. If they are looking at the average times for when this gets completed, and recently I had thought it had dropped to 60 days, then it makes it possible for them to increase speed.

This is part of the data I use to guessume a kickout date for the P4, since you clearly can't get an interview if you have not passed the name check.

 

On another note, I would appretiate feedback on the P3 to Interview chart if it is not clear that things are speeding up. Maybe I am so used to looking at it, is seems obvious to me, at least for January P3's.

But I should also note back in November, it was all speeding up to, then December lost time. Maybe they are making up for the holidays, the move, and the loss of four interview days a month. (Or is that a reconsolidation of all other interviews to Mondays, as what was rare is becoming common.)

[DocMartin817]

I think the other interesting data is the P4 to interview times. Looking at the last 11 data points on the timeline, the average wait from receiving the P4 until the interview is about 45-46 days with a range of 34 to 64 days. Now the last two reported interview dates that are not yet on the timeline had extremely fast turnaround times - two weeks or so. It is way to early to see if this is a trend or an anomaly. I tend to think the latter, but the next few weeks will give us enough data points to see if a trend emerges.

 

So now I am thinking, if the trends hold constant, that our P4 could arrive some time during the week of May 30th with the interview around July 15th.

[david_dawei]

So now I am thinking, if the trends hold constant, that our P4 could arrive some time during the week of May 30th with the interview around July 15th.

were those your footsteps I hear scurrying away in the other room.

[goneflying2000]

According to my wife the scuttlebut on 001 is that GZ is speeding up.

It seems that many MMs received P4s this week

[nooneufo]

DocMartin817,

While the p4 to interview # of days are useful in determining a likely interview date on predictions, having them come two weeks before the interview has occurred before, so I would not give it any value without further additional changes. I say this because the assignment pattern from month to month continues to be the same. For example nousername is 141 days P3 to interview. Lourose before him is 156 days, and hlin after him is 144 days. As expected really. If we then take the data on wawafish, 120 days, this could seem unusual. But not when compared to the month to month pattern. Particularly when his P3 date entered is February. The ones before him are January.

 

Based on last months pattern, I have you down as 05/31/05 for P4 and Interview date of 07/21/05. This would give 51 days notice. In the recent past, more than 60 days notice has occurred, so your inteview date I also project could be 07/27/05 as well for 59 days notice. This is because if next week is the switch over week for the month assignments, you could get the P4 next week instead and the Interview date would be pushed forward accordingly, because on average the first of each new inteview months assignments are made with the longest notice. (also note the holiday, so yours could push forward for this reason as well). This is based on the past 6 months.

 

Because the assignment pattern, if you look at month to month beginnings and ends there is an average 15 day difference for total number of days from P3 to P4 .. However, if it ends up that your p4 shows around 140 to 145 days from p3, I would take this to mean the current trend continues. I can understand that a person or two getting an earlier P4 than expected would make one think there is a change, but this is also fairly regular as well, because of the appearance of the "last in first out" on the stack of papers, if they run out of one stack, they seems to go to the next stack and you get lucky. I was one of those.

 

Three problems with this scenario.

The first is your time line is not standard. (The time between received P3 and entered P4 is one of the longer ones).

The second, is either the lack of people reporting their received P4's that are on the list to fill the gaps, or they haven't got one yet.

Third, the usual not quite enough reports, and accurate dating of P3/P4 letters so having to extrapolate the gaps in the dates.

 

And finally, what we see month to month is the attempt to get faster, in my opinion. Could they suddenly clear the calendar and assign all the K1/K3/CR1s? Of course we say yes, why not. But will they, afterall, our numbers are really quite small in comparison to everything else. I unfortunately know that so long as an agency can show a good show, we probably can not expect more.

 

In the end, I think we will simply see more of the same trend, as they push the dates back towards the name check average completion time. No ones application is special, and they all go into the computer to be sorted out. There is too much to do it any other way.

 

There is no question they are speeding up, look at the current chart.

[david_dawei]

According to my wife the scuttlebut on 001 is that GZ is speeding up.

It seems that many MMs received P4s this week

um.... I will say, on the one hand, I do like to generally know of what [visa-wise] is going on at 001. We can compare our trends, etc...

 

But , MMs receiving P4s really tells us nothing. Everyone receives P4s at some point. We should evaluate the P3 to P4 and the P4 to interview.... and which one (or both) show any trend. But any trend prior to the move is still not evidence of a continued trend.. only time will tell. We can hope, and we can speculate.. but let's not throw a party yet!

 

Looking at the 001 data, people are getting their interviews who had sent in P3s in december or january... So, 001 is showing a fair number who got ones (22 P4s received in May.. only a few are 'quick' interviews) . CFLs last two who got quick P4s to interviews sent in P3s in early feb.

 

What's clear is that P4s are being received and getting June dated interviews prior to others who already had an interview date which are possibly later.

 

Whether this is fill in before the move, speed up because of the move, etc.. is yet to be seen...

 

Good to keep an eye on both sites results...

[nooneufo]

My opinion is the move, the holidays whatever, appear to have had an affect already, (December P3's) and now it is back to the previous trend of an average two week speed up per month. This is why I do the chart so it can be visualized more clearly, I hope.

[david_dawei]

My opinion is the move, the holidays whatever, appear to have had an affect already, (December P3's) and now it is back to the previous trend of an average two week speed up per month.  This is why I do the chart so it  can be visualized more clearly, I hope.

nooneufo.. how can you post and not appear online? I cannot visualize that !

 

I want to get back to understand those graphs.. uh.. maybe tomorrow. Opps! It is already tomorrow....