Interview/P3 list for last week of March

[nooneufo]

Last week was a great week, white slips all around. Hope for the same for this week as well.

 

Let me know of changes and additions.

(actual P3 to P4 received is as reported, not corrected for Monday/Tuesday Theory)

We are not going to forget.

Delayed--------------P3----------Status?

Maui & China------06/27/04-------2nd name check delay

Mari--------------07/15/04-------2nd name check delay

Jpj936------------08/06/04

Alex-----------------------------12/08/04 Interview/Blue slip/Case review

 

Waiting to hear about these people. Let us know what happened.

CFL Name-------------P3--------P4------Interview---#days---P3 to P4-----Type--USC in GZ?--Color slip

Ahhming888--------07/16/04---11/30/04---01/27/05---195-------137---------??------???------Blue/Pending

rogerluli---------10/22/04---02/22/05---03/09/05---138-------123---------K1------No-------Blue/Pending

Mike Xiao---------10/28/04---02/08/05---03/11/05---134-------103-----K3/CR1/CR2--Yes------Blue/Processing Review

 

 

Listed by upcoming Interview.

CFL Name-------------P3--------P4------Interview---#days---P3 to P4-----Type--USC in GZ?--Color slip

Yave20B-----------09/25/04---01/25/05---03/28/05---184-------122--------K1------Yes-------White

AnimatorMark------09/21/04---01/25/05---03/29/05---189-------126--------K1------Yes-------White

Yvonne & Stan-----09/21/04---01/24/05---03/31/05---191-------124--------K1------Yes-------White

Amberzhu----------09/29/04---01/31/05---03/31/05---183-------124--------K1------Yes-------White

MRMC--------------11/??/04---03/16/05---04/06/05---???-------112--------K1/K2

G-man-------------11/21/04---03/14/05---04/11/05---141-------113--------K1

BandJ-------------10/31/04---02/28/05---04/12/05---163-------120--------K1

animejpop---------10/10/04---03/08/05---04/13/05---185-------149--------K1

boba--------------11/17/04---03/14/05---04/14/05---148-------117--------K1/K2

njbernie----------11/02/04---03/02/05---04/15/05---164-------120--------K1

jual_3------------??/??/??---02/28/05---04/18/05---???-------98---------K1

nooneufo----------11/26/04---03/01/05---04/18/05---143-------95---------K1

Springmud ´ºÄà-----11/12/04---03/17/05---04/21/05---160-------125--------K1

larrynicholas-----11/16/04---03/01/05---04/21/05---156-------105--------K1

Dogfish-----------11/22/04---03/14/05---04/27/05---156-------112--------K1

cliff-------------11/20/04---02/28/05---04/28/05---159-------100--------K1

da64---Delayed----12/15/04---03/16/05---04/28/05---134-------91---------K1

Markd-------------12/22/04---03/26/05---05/16/05---145-------94---------K1

perryf------------12/20/04---03/31/05---05/16/05---147-------101--------K3

jgrier5-----------12/01/04---04/01/05---05/23/05---173-------121--------CR1

steve&wei---------12/27/04---03/31/05---05/23/05---147-------94---------IR1

dmaddox74---------12/07/04---03/29/05---05/24/05---168-------112--------K3

vibes1313---------12/20/04---03/29/05---05/24/05---155-------99---------K1

fhtb--------------12/19/04---03/28/05---05/25/05---158-------100--------K1

hank--------------12/20/04---03/25/05---05/26/05---157-------95---------K1

Icebreaker--------12/27/04---03/28/05---05/31/05---155-------91---------K1

someonesbrother---12/13/04---03/25/05---05/31/05---169-------102--------K1

 

 

Most Recently received P3 Interviews. Listed by P4.

CFL Name-------------P3--------P4------Interview---#days-----P3 to P4

jual_3------------??/??/??---02/28/05---04/18/05---???-------98

cliff-------------11/20/04---02/28/05---04/28/05---159-------100

Springmud ´ºÄà-----11/12/04---03/17/05---04/21/05---160-------125

larrynicholas-----11/16/04---03/01/05---04/21/05---156-------105

nooneufo----------11/26/04---03/01/05---04/18/05---143-------95

njbernie----------11/02/04---03/02/05---04/15/05---164-------120

boba--------------11/17/04---03/14/05---04/14/05---148-------117

G-man-------------11/21/04---03/14/05---04/11/05---141-------113

Dogfish-----------11/22/04---03/14/05---04/27/05---156-------112

MRMC--------------11/??/04---03/16/05---04/06/05---???-------112

da64---Delayed----12/15/04---03/16/05---04/28/05---134-------91

hank--------------12/20/04---03/25/05---05/26/05---157-------95

someonesbrother---12/13/04---03/25/05---05/31/05---169-------102

Markd-------------12/22/04---03/26/05---05/16/05---145-------94

Icebreaker--------12/27/04---03/28/05---05/31/05---155-------91

dmaddox74---------12/07/04---03/29/05---05/24/05---168-------112

fhtb--------------12/19/04---03/29/05---05/25/05---158-------100

vibes1313---------12/20/04---03/29/05---05/24/05---155-------99

perryf------------12/20/04---03/31/05---05/16/05---147-------101

steve&wei---------12/27/04---03/31/05---05/23/05---147-------94

jgrier5-----------12/01/04---04/01/05---05/23/05---173-------121

 

This list reflects my Monday/Tuesday theory and earliest guess. P4 is my guess of the date on the Interview letter. P3 to P4 is how many days between I am calculating so that you can compare to real numbers above. You can see that I am projecting Guangzhou's past increase into the future.

 

November-------------P3---------P4------P3 to P4

Zingaro-----------10/28/04---03/28/05---151

yuan95------------11/11/04---03/28/05---130

 

December-------------P3---------P4------P3 to P4

Squid-------------12/07/04---03/28/05---111

Chad&Tong---------12/07/04---03/28/05---111

jimglot-----------12/08/04---03/28/05---110

DanR--------------12/29/04---03/28/05---96

Bahan-------------12/01/04---03/28/05---110

Bahan-------------12/29/04---03/28/05---89

Bahan-------------01/05/05---03/28/05---82

 

January--------------P3---------P4------P3 to P4

Keith-N-Min-------01/05/05---04/04/05---89

lizziedannypie----01/05/05---04/11/05---96

melvin------------01/05/05---04/11/05---96

Liuxia's Husband--01/06/05---04/04/05---88

Feathers268-------01/07/05---04/25/05---108

nousername--------01/09/05---04/25/05---106

June03------------01/11/05---05/09/05---118

LouRose-----------01/11/05---04/25/05---104

inxy--------------01/15/05---05/09/05---114

krjchen-----------01/15/05---04/18/05---93

john90------------01/20/05---04/18/05---88

Littleturtle------01/??/05---Need P3 in computer date

 

February--------------P3---------P4------P3 to P4

benfanfan---------02/02/05---05/09/05---96

benfanfan---------03/03/05---06/06/05---95

DocMartin817------02/03/05---05/09/05---95

F & L-------------02/24/05---06/06/05---102

Jfong988----------02/25/05---06/06/05---101

vincent-----------02/25/05---06/06/05---101

pkfops------------02/26/05---06/06/05---100

 

March-----------------P3---------P4------P3 to P4

Ghostrider--------03/06/05---06/06/05---99

mild bill---------03/08/05---06/08/05---90

Menqxin-----------03/08/05---06/06/05---83

mlspyl------------03/10/05---06/06/05---74

mlspyl------------03/24/05---06/13/05---74

alaskagypsy-------03/11/05---07/13/05---84

Chinese Wife!!!---02/14/05---06/06/05---112

Chinese Wife!!!---03/11/05---06/06/05---87

dailyview---------03/18/05---05/30/05---73

RICHARDLOVESPING--03/23/05---06/06/05---75

riki3742----------03/26/05---06/27/05---93

ngatl15-----------03/28/05---07/04/05---98

DavidZixuan-------03/30/05---07/04/05---96

impatient---------03/31/05---07/04/05---95

xulei601----------03/31/05---07/04/05---95

BuffaloPaul-------04/01/05---07/04/05---94

 

If the P3 date listed is not the one in the computer at GZ, let me know it if you want a more accurate prediction. If it is the date you sent the P3, I would add a week or two.

 

(#days is from P3 to Interview, more accurate if time reported is P3 entry into computer)

Color code for K1 and K3 sending P3 to Guz(Top color most accurate)

Red = P3 entered in Computer

Blue = P3 received at GUZ (Mail delivery of P3 papers)

Green = P3 sent to GUZ

Pink = P3 received from GUZ

Orange = P3 uncertain

Color code for K3/CR1/IR1 sending ds-230 to NVC(Still working on accuracy, need more data)

Brown = DS-230 Sent to NVC or Received

Purple = Case Complete at NVC

Gray = DS-230 At GUZ from NVC

 

Additional Note: Shifted time line guesses to a longer value to account for Guangzhou being closed May 2nd, 3rd, 4th and the 30th. I am assuming they won't speed up, but they could.

 

Another try of my experiment of inteview date predictions.(add usual caveats of full moon on February 30th kind of thing)

December-------------P3-----Guess of P4------Guess of Interview

jgrier5-----------12/01/04---03/28/05---The week of May 16th or 05/17/05 Missed by 6 days Interview is 05/23/05

vibes1313---------12/20/04---03/28/05---The week of May 9th or 05/10/05 Missed by 14 days Interview is 05/24/05

Markd-------------12/22/04---03/28/05---The week of May 2nd or 05/05/05 Missed by 11 days Interview is 05/16/05

Icebreaker--------12/27/04---03/28/05---The week of May 16th or 05/16/05 Missed by 15 days Interview is 05/31/05

Bahan-------------12/29/04---03/28/05---The week of May 16th or 05/18/05

Squid-------------12/07/04---03/28/05---The week of May 9th or 05/12/05

Chad&Tong---------12/07/04---03/28/05---The week of May 9th or 05/13/05

dmaddox74---------12/07/04---03/28/05---The week of May 16th or 05/18/05 Missed by 6 days Interview is 05/24/05

jimglot-----------12/08/04---03/28/05---The week of May 16th or 05/17/05

DanR--------------12/29/04---03/28/05---The week of May 16th or 05/20/05

Anyone who would like my spread sheet, PM me your email address and I will send it to you. Lots of colorful confusing charts, plenty of time lines...over 80.

If you are K1/K3, and your color in not red, you should try to find out the date your P3 was entered into the computer, or tell me it needs correction.

[vibes1313]

I know, donahso. Maybe one of the March P3's should apprentice.

[jgrier5]

BOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

Where's my P4?

*Throws tomatoes*

[Squid]

Thankyou nooneufo! You have been a great help.

[nooneufo]

I was wondering that too.

Got any fries with that?

I am hoping this week has a P4 flood, as I see by reported times on the US side are getting faster, and Guangzhou is getting faster, so if the target is six months start to finish for a visa, there could even be a leap in time......and no more need for a list.

Come on, come out little Guzzy, its okay, we won't hurt you, much.

[mlspyl]

Nooneufo:

 

 

As your fiancee's interview approaches, if you feel the need for help or want to pass on the torch, er spreadsheet, at some point please let me know. I would be happy to help if I can.

 

I enjoy working with numbers. Hey, they don't argue back !!!!

 

 

Mark

[MRMC]

Yes your chart helps with the wait. At least we can all know approximately when we will hear something. Keep up the great work.

[jgrier5]

So tomorrow Nooneufo?

[John & Hai Yan]

Nooneufo,

Bejingjj got a white slip. They posted the info in the James & Veronica post.

 

http://candleforlove.com/forums/index....=1&t=9381&st=15

[Dan R]

Fantastic!!!!!!!!!!!!

[lizziedannypie]

Hey nooneufo, A girl who is also a DCF on 001 just got her p4 yesterday. And her p3 date is December 10th. But the point is her name check has been completed for only 10 days or so. My conclusion is as long as your name check is finished, the sequence ( I don't know if it's a right word or not) of p4 depends on your p3 date. So I guess my p4 should be sent in the middle of April. Dose it make sense? BTW, the Dec 10th is when she recieved the p3. Thank you for your new list.

 

Lizzie

[nooneufo]

jgrier5,

If we're voting, my vote is tomorrow. But since we know in the past two weeks some people are unable to get this direct from Dos and are getting it through the mail, it is unknown. Also, maybe next week. (I sound just like the Guz, and I know just as little).

 

John & Hai Yan,

Thanks, I missed that. I will update it on the previous list and erase it on this list one so it is easier to track.

 

mlspyl,

PM me your email address and I can send it to you, see what you make of it. I think we need some one way out there in time. More numbers is better.

 

lizziedannypie,

The data supports this conclusion. (Also why I shifted your p4 date back a week so your guess matches mine, of course no DCF really fits well either, so maybe sooner, or later). I think this is why we see an incremental stepping, because as we know many people are just waiting in the interview queue, all else is done. When I say incremental stepping, I mean Guangzhou is slowly looking at the dates of P3's versus name checks and cutting back on the amount of time to wait to send the P4. But if you fall on the wrong side of that cut off, generally you can add up to 30 days of additional wait time for the p4. The maximum P4 to interview time is 62 days, and the minimum so far is 15 days. That is a lot of slack to get the P4 and still fit the scheduled interview date in the P3 sequence. I would be the last to defend Guangzhou, but if this is what is going on, then they have to be sure all the other agencies(namechecks/whatever) are done first without spending a lot of time looking at each file. This sucks, but is understandable (next thing you know I'll be their official spoksperson. Fortunately it is an easy job, say the same things a hundred different ways without telling you anything).

I think it would be possible to get much more accurate on the knowing when, if we had everyone reporting the same dates the same way. What makes it more difficult is how they reverse the P4 send outs. But at least with so many time lines in general, a much closer guess can be had, and for those who find themselves way out of line, they can start to consider what to do....but I don't think even this week this is true for anyone as we can see on 01 there are still a few November P3's getting a P4. I go with the stack idea that they were on the bottom. When you line up the sequence of P3's it still fits. Interview date set when P3 returned and entered. ( I can imagine another way of doing this, that can make it appear this way as well).

If we take the minimums and maximums of P3 to Interview times for November P3's, we can also see this fits, 143 days (nooneufo) up to 164 days (njbernie) within one month of time. Or on 01 forum, up to 167 days. That slack time is there.

It is difficult to see the whole profile when the dates we get here represent less than three percent of the monthly K1/K3 interview dates. If there was ten percent, and good date reporting, we would probably become very bored knowing who was next. Less money would be made as well.

[nooneufo]

For those who would like the visual aids.

First chart shows mostly flat line for December P3's because it is only just starting.

Hope it is obvious the huge end of month jumps in P3 to Interview times in the second chart.

 

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/Chart1.gif

 

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/Chart2a.gif

[MarkD]

Let me know of changes and additions.

I called the DOS today. They told me that they sent out the P4 on March 26 and our interview date is May 16. Yes, sent on March 26, a Saturday. I asked twice.

 

Anyway: !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

A big thanks to nooneufo for keeping the statistics!

[impatient]

Hey nooneufo, I sure hope your timeline is good, it would be great to be done by July, thanks for all the hard work.

 

Bill