New Interview/P3 list, good luck this week.

[nooneufo]

Since there is an Interview everyday, will we get daily reports from Guangzhou?

Congratulations to last weeks interviews and overcome interviews.

Let me know of changes and additions.

(actual P3 to P4 received is as reported, not corrected for Monday/Tuesday Theory)

We are not going to forget.

Delayed--------------P3----------Status?

Maui & China------06/27/04-------2nd name check delay

Mari--------------07/15/04-------2nd name check delay

Jpj936------------08/06/04

Alex-----------------------------12/08/04 Interview/Blue slip/Case review

 

Waiting to hear about these people. Let us know what happened.

CFL Name-------------P3--------P4------Interview---#days---P3 to P4-----Type--USC in GZ?--Color slip

Ahhming-----------07/16/04---11/30/04---01/27/05---195-------137---------??------???------Blue/Pending

rogerluli---------10/22/04---02/22/05---03/09/05---138-------123---------K1------No-------Blue/Pending

Mike Xiao---------10/28/04---02/08/05---03/11/05---134-------103-----K3/CR1/CR2--Yes------Blue/Processing Review

 

Listed by upcoming Interview.

CFL Name-------------P3--------P4------Interview---#days---P3 to P4-----Type--USC in GZ?--Color slip

Drew21------------09/23/04---01/25/05---03/21/05---179-------124--------K1------No---------White

NYViking----------09/22/04---02/10/05---03/22/05---181-------141--------K1------No---------White

sting88-----------09/26/04---01/28/05---03/22/05---177-------124--------K1------No---------White

Beijingjenny------09/14/04---02/15/05---03/23/05---190-------154Preg/DCFK3------No---------White

Mike_M------------09/21/04---02/07/05---03/23/05---183-------139--------K1------No---------White

John & Hai Yan----09/03/04---01/25/05---03/24/05---184-------126--------K1------No---------White

beijingjj---------??/??/??---??/??/??---03/25/05---???-------???--------K3------??---------White

James & Veronica--10/13/04---02/09/05---03/25/05---163-------119--------K1------No---------White

Yave20B-----------09/25/04---01/25/05---03/28/05---184-------122--------K1

AnimatorMark------09/21/04---01/25/05---03/29/05---189-------126--------K1

Yvonne & Stan-----09/21/04---01/24/05---03/31/05---191-------124--------K1

Amberzhu----------09/29/04---01/31/05---03/31/05---183-------124--------K1

MRMC--------------11/??/04---03/16/05---04/06/05---???-------112--------K1/K2

G-man-------------11/21/04---03/14/05---04/11/05---141-------113--------K1

BandJ-------------10/31/04---02/28/05---04/12/05---163-------120--------K1

boba--------------11/17/04---03/14/05---04/14/05---148-------117--------K1---Interview cancelled due to NVC paper loss

njbernie----------11/02/04---03/02/05---04/15/05---164-------120--------K1

jual_3------------??/??/??---02/28/05---04/18/05---???-------98---------K1

nooneufo----------11/26/04---03/01/05---04/18/05---143-------95---------K1

larrynicholas-----11/16/04---03/01/05---04/21/05---156-------105--------K1

Dogfish-----------11/22/04---03/14/05---04/27/05---156-------112--------K1

cliff-------------11/20/04---02/28/05---04/28/05---159-------100--------K1

da64---Delayed----12/15/04---03/16/05---04/28/05---134-------91---------K1

hank--------------12/20/04---03/25/05---05/26/05---157-------95---------K1

 

Most Recently received P3 Interviews. Listed by P4.

CFL Name-------------P3--------P4------Interview---#days-----P3 to P4

jual_3------------??/??/??---02/28/05---04/18/05---???-------98

cliff-------------11/20/04---02/28/05---04/28/05---159-------100

larrynicholas-----11/16/04---03/01/05---04/21/05---156-------105

nooneufo----------11/26/04---03/01/05---04/18/05---143-------95

njbernie----------11/02/04---03/02/05---04/15/05---164-------120

Dogfish-----------11/22/04---03/14/05---04/27/05---156-------112

boba--------------11/17/04---03/14/05---04/14/05---148-------117---Interview cancelled due to NVC paper loss

MRMC--------------11/??/04---03/16/05---04/06/05---???-------112

da64---Delayed----12/15/04---03/16/05---04/28/05---134-------91

G-man-------------11/21/04---03/14/05---04/11/05---141-------113

hank--------------12/20/04---03/25/05---05/26/05---157-------95

 

This list reflects my Monday/Tuesday theory and earliest guess.

November-------------P3-----Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months data

Zingaro-----------10/28/04---03/21/05

yuan95------------11/11/04---03/21/05

 

December-------------P3-----Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months data

jgrier5-----------10/28/04---03/21/05

jgrier5-----------11/01/04---03/21/05

jgrier5-----------12/01/04---03/21/05

Squid-------------12/07/04---03/21/05

Chad&Tong---------12/07/04---03/21/05

dmaddox74---------12/07/04---03/21/05

jimglot-----------12/08/04---03/21/05

vibes1313---------12/20/04---03/21/05

Markd-------------12/22/04---03/21/05

Icebreaker--------12/27/04---03/21/05

DanR--------------12/29/04---03/28/05

Bahan-------------12/01/04---03/21/05

Bahan-------------12/29/04---03/21/05

Bahan-------------01/05/05---03/28/05

 

January--------------P3-----Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months data

Keith-N-Min-------01/05/05---04/04/05

lizziedannypie----01/05/05---04/04/05

melvin------------01/05/05---04/04/05

Liuxia's Husband--01/06/05---04/04/05

Feathers268-------01/07/05---04/25/05

nousername--------01/09/05---04/25/05

June03------------01/11/05---05/09/05

LouRose-----------01/11/05---04/25/05

inxy--------------01/15/05---05/09/05

krjchen-----------01/15/05---04/18/05

john90------------01/20/05---04/18/05

DocMartin817------01/28/05---05/09/05

Littleturtle------01/??/05---Need P3 in computer date

 

February--------------P3-------Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months data

benfanfan---------02/02/05---05/23/05

F & L-------------02/24/05---06/06/05

Jfong988----------02/25/05---06/06/05

vincent-----------02/25/05---06/06/05

pkfops------------02/26/05---06/06/05

 

March-----------------P3-------Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months data

Ghostrider--------03/06/05---06/06/05

mild bill---------03/08/05---06/08/05

Menqxin-----------03/08/05---06/06/05

mlspyl------------03/10/05---06/06/05

mlspyl------------03/24/05---06/13/05

alaskagypsy-------03/11/05---07/13/05

Chinese Wife!!!---02/14/05---06/06/05

Chinese Wife!!!---03/11/05---06/06/05

dailyview---------03/18/05---04/22/05

RICHARDLOVESPING--03/23/05---06/27/05

boba--------------03/24/05---06/06/05

 

If the P3 date listed is not the one in the computer at GZ, let me know it if you want a more accurate prediction. If it is the date you sent the P3, I would add a week or two.

(#days is from P3 to Interview, more accurate if time reported is P3 entry into computer)

Color code for K1 and K3 sending P3 to Guz(Top color most accurate)

Red = P3 entered in Computer

Blue = P3 received at GUZ

Green = P3 sent to GUZ

Pink = P3 received from GUZ

Orange = P3 uncertain

Color code for K3/CR1/IR1 sending ds-230 to NVC(Still working on accuracy, need more data)

Brown = DS-230 Sent to NVC or Received

Purple = Case Complete at NVC

Gray = DS-230 At GUZ from NVC

 

 

Additional Note: Shifted time line guesses to a longer value to account for Guangzhou being closed May 2nd, 3rd, 4th and the 30th. I am assuming they won't speed up, but they could.

 

Just as an experiment, since more people have been posting more accurate time lines, I applied the P4 to Interview times to the following people because they have the most up to date status on where their P3 is. Except the CR1's, which is a test guess.

If they get their P4 dated on Monday or Tuesday (and other too numerous to mention caveats).

I wouldn't put any money down, just a preliminary idea of mine, which came to me as I was riding my bicycle home from the lab where I had just finished the 25th substance of a series of derivatives......

December-------------P3-----Guess of P4------Guess of Interview

jgrier5-----------12/01/04---03/21/05---The week of April 25th or 04/28/05

vibes1313---------12/20/04---03/21/05---The week of May 9th or 05/10/05

Markd-------------12/22/04---03/21/05---The week of May 2nd or 05/05/05

Icebreaker--------12/27/04---03/21/05---The week of May 16th or 05/16/05

Bahan-------------12/29/04---03/21/05---The week of May 16th or 05/18/05

I keep forgetting to mention, that anyone who would like my spread sheet, PM me your email address and I will send it to you. Lots of colorful confusing charts, plenty of time lines...over 80.

[goneflying2000]

For CR-1 are you figuring about 3 months from completion at NVC to receiving P4 from GZ? Thanks

[nooneufo]

goneflying2000,

I am basing the CR1 guesses based on these two CFL member time lines and their placement in the list.

 

olemanoman1950 reports 9/23/04 Case Complete after the NVC gets the ds-230 on 09/03/04. The two K1's before and after him show the following

number of days from ds-230 at NVC to the Interview date.

181 K1

179 K1

186---olemanoman1950 (using the ds-230 at NVC date)

184 K1

177 K1

 

Mike Xiao reports the same format, 10/28/04 case complete after NVC receives the ds-230 on 10/06/04. The two K1's before and after him show the

following number of days from ds-230 at NVC to the Interview date.

137 K3 Guz

138 K1

156---Mike Xiao (using the ds-230 at NVC date)

163 K1

164 K1

Uncorrected data (using NVC completed date)

CFL Name-------------P3----------P4--------Interview---#days---P3 to P4-----The matching day of the week

olemanoman1950----09/23/04-----01/25/05-----03/08/05---166-------124-----Thursday---Tuesday---Tuesday

Mike Xiao---------10/28/04-----02/08/05-----03/11/05---134-------103-----Thursday---Tuesday---Friday

 

 

Here is the list of everyone in p3 date order since August 2004. Here you can see NVC Completed date for their times to fall in line with the P3 to P4 times.

(Raw numbers not corrected)

 

Type #days from P3 to P4

?? 125

K1 129

?? 128

K1 125

?? 125

K1 129

?? 119

?? 119

?? 120

K3 134 Guz

K1 142 K2

K1 114

K1 119

K3 145 Guz

K1 143

K1 134

K1 106

K1 133

K3 154 Guz DCF

K3 98 Guz

K1 132

K1 121

K1 127

K1 126

K3 117 Guz

K1 139

K1 128

K1 116

K1 141

K1 124

K3 124 NVC olemanoman1950

K1 122

K1 124

K1 119

K1 124

K1 124

K3 109 CR1/Guz DCF

K1 123

K3 103 CR1/CR2 NVC Mike Xiao

K1 120

K1 117

K1 100

K1 112

K1 112 K2

K1 95

K1 91

 

 

So I am considering these two dates and placing them in the time line order based on the K1's around them. As of last week the P3 to P4 average is 100

days, then another 50 days to the interview, around 140-150 days. Will this hold true? Only the you-know-who knows.

A basic answer to your question is I am guessing 100 days, just over three months. Last four months shows they speed up on the P4s an average of one week per month. I am currently assuming this is going to continue, although the two Mondays off in May has me concerned.

[DaveR]

Good luck to everyone who has their interview this week. I hope that only white slips come out of GZ.

 

Dave

[frank1538]

Listed by upcoming Interview.

CFL Name-------------P3--------P4------Interview---#days---P3 to P4-----Type--USC in GZ?--Color slip

Drew21------------09/23/04---01/25/05---03/21/05---179-------124--------K1------No---------White

NYViking----------09/22/04---02/10/05---03/22/05---181-------141--------K1

sting88-----------09/26/04---01/28/05---03/22/05---177-------124--------K1

Beijingjenny------09/14/04---02/15/05---03/23/05---190-------154Preg/DCFK3

Mike_M------------09/21/04---02/07/05---03/23/05---183-------139--------K1

John & Hai Yan----09/03/04---01/25/05---03/24/05---184-------126--------K1

beijingjj---------??/??/??---??/??/??---03/25/05---???-------???--------K3

James & Veronica--10/13/04---02/09/05---03/25/05---163-------119--------??

I've been exercising my fingers, practicing typing "congratulations". Good luck everybody.

[Zingaro]

I'm having trouble understanding the disparity in individual timelines. A number of people who sent in P3's as much as a month after we sent in our P3 documents have already received their P4s. As far as I can tell, there's nothing unusual about our case. But all I can get out of GZ (by email) is "name check is incomplete."

 

Can anyone offer any insights into the differences in individual timelines?

 

Richard

[nooneufo]

Zingaro,

I can only offer what I see from the previous time lines that people post. Very few post the dates their "namecheck" is complete. While your time is seemingly late, I note the following.

The date I have you down is the date you mailed the P3. The differences in the times is due to which date people report. It does take time for them to get it and enter it into the computer, and we know that your wait time does not start until that happens. For example, if they did not enter you into the computer until say November 25th, I calculate based on the previous peoples times, it could still be reasonable not to expect a P4 for few more weeks. We can see that there is easily a 30-45 day difference if your file happens to be on one end or the other of the line on a month by month basis. This means I think it would be reasonable to see up to a two month difference at times, depending on who got the last cup of coffee in the coffee pot that day.

We also know from many people before, that what they tell you on the phone, or what they email you, may be different from what is happening.

Some are told they are waiting for a few months more, then next week they get the interview. I would say concern is expected, but you may have to wait another month.

However, we also know you probably won't get a p4 until the name check is completed.

None of this probably helps you, but I would say patience is the watch word for now. Give it some more time.

I would also recommend the advice from da64, which is to check both by email and by calling DOS. They lost some of his papers and did not tell him.

[jgrier5]

I am still waiting Nooneufo.

 

Confirmed that my case was complete back in November and that my name check was completed in January...waaaaaaaaaaaaa

[nooneufo]

jgrier5,

Only for you would I do this, because you are special.

 

December-------------P3-----Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months data

 

jgrier5-----------12/01/04---03/21/05------110 days

jgrier5-----------12/01/04---03/28/05------117 days

jgrier5-----------12/01/04---04/04/05------124 days

 

If the CR1's are following the same pattern, and I find it hard to think they are in a different pile, since everyone else gets an interview in two weeks or less if they are business and that has not happened to you or anyone else. The guess of this week is based on recent data. The next two guesses, are still optimistic and based on the previous months data. We know if your file is in the top or bottom, this can affect when you get to know (P4), and really we are only in week three of this month. Guessuming of course that CR1's follow the same pattern.

The question of which pile you are on, is important because the numbers hint that this matters, but without enough accurate time lines for computer entries it is difficult to pin down when this happens. I wish I could read and write Chinese, because if someone were to get this from the 001 forum (Matching accuracy), maybe we could get more accuracy, but I have not been able to explain the need for it too well to my SO, who would like me to put more time towards her, weird huh?

And finally, because they say June or July, they are talking about the interview. Let us guess an Interview of June 1st. Average recent notice of P4 is 50 days ahead of that. That means first or second week of April. I assume they are being conservative. Hello, if we look at the 124 day wait time, it is the first week of April for a P4.

Now I don't think we have enough evidence, but I am starting to get the impression you are sometimes a little impatient, nothing specific mind you.

[vibes1313]

No P-4's this week?

[Cody]

nooneufo,

 

Time to rethink some of the estimates. Maybe GUZ will spit out a few P4's before the month is over.

[nooneufo]

While I would reconsider the estimates, I have learned that it is best not to do so until Saturday at least, because some people just don't report, or like me, are unable to get the info from DOS until the p4 arrives in the mail first. This is also why it is all important to have the date your P3 is entered into the computer, and the date written on the actual P4, not when you recieved it. It is the only way to get closer. After all, I only had less than ten proper time lines up until the last five accurate ones out of 80. Imagine what we could know if more people would report, even if they only know some of their info. Every bit helps.

Below is the first set of optimistic dates for the ones this week who are in red, and the two CR1's who are waiting. The days you can compare to the previous months data. If they are not going faster, then next week would match the fastest they have been since a year ago. Even if they do not receive any next week, it is still within the time they have been sending them out for the week after that. I am not doing those in green because there can be way more date fluctuation, because it is unknown when it got into the computer, and so I simply add the closest 10-14 day interval. Unless someone has not posted, and if there is no jump, we could easily not see a P4 until April, but it is way to early yet, since my own time line was one of those two week jumps. If they really wanted to bribe me, I needed at least a month. I'm easy, but not cheap.

 

Whats missing? MORE TIME LINES!!! Come on people, put your time lines on your signatures, you benefit, we benefit, everyone benefits, and everyone can write letters on how this wait is an outrage. And some day, maybe there will be no wait at all and your interview will be scheduled with in a week of its return from name check......oh, I'm awake now.

 

This week.....really early.

 

December-------------P3-----Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months data

jgrier5-----------10/28/04---03/21/05---144

jgrier5-----------11/01/04---03/21/05---140

jgrier5-----------12/01/04---03/21/05---117

 

vibes1313---------12/20/04---03/21/05---91

Markd-------------12/22/04---03/21/05---89

Icebreaker--------12/27/04---03/21/05---84

 

Bahan-------------12/01/05---03/21/05---110

Bahan-------------12/29/05---03/21/05---82

Bahan-------------01/05/05---03/28/05---82

 

 

Next week....still kinda early.

 

December-------------P3-----Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months data

jgrier5-----------10/28/04---03/28/05---151

jgrier5-----------11/01/04---03/28/05---147

jgrier5-----------12/01/04---03/28/05---124

 

vibes1313---------12/20/04---03/28/05---98

Markd-------------12/22/04---03/28/05---96

Icebreaker--------12/27/04---03/28/05---91

 

Bahan-------------12/01/04---03/28/05---117

Bahan-------------12/29/04---03/28/05---89

Bahan-------------01/05/05---04/04/05---89

 

So, unless some out there is lurking, it could be a while. Then again, could be a surprise. You know who knows.

[lizziedannypie]

Hey nooneufo, I just called the DOS last night. Nothing is new. I don't know if I can receive the P4 in the begining of next month. Maybe we need to rethink of my p4 date?

 

Lizzie

[nooneufo]

lizziedannypie,

Every week I think the same things, but somehow I find a way to be optimistic for everyone. Mostly because I think that they have to do something to fix their problems. Anyway, as I had said before, this weeks projections were base on the most optimistic pattern, and unless someone posts something soon, it looks like we might have to go all the way back to the longest wait time averages of 120 days. I have listed for you the possibilities, although we should use your computer entry date instead, if you can ask for it from DOS. It could easily be May instead.

Come on Guz, we know you can do better!

 

-------------------------------------------number of days from P3 to P4

lizziedannypie----01/05/05---04/04/05---89

lizziedannypie----01/05/05---04/11/05---96

lizziedannypie----01/05/05---04/18/05---103

lizziedannypie----01/05/05---04/25/05---110

lizziedannypie----01/05/05---05/09/05---124 May 2,3,4 is closed

lizziedannypie----01/05/05---05/16/05---131

[dailyview]

Just wantd to help with your timeline. Got P3 on March 11, returned P3 on March 18th. Waiting for P4