P4 Received.

[nooneufo]

After discussing the P4 with my SO, it turns out that the Interview letter is dated the 1st of March 2005. A Monday. This brings the P3 to P4 time line down to 95 days. P3 to Interview time to 145 days. I also called Dos, who told me they could not tell when the Interview was assigned. Obviously wrong person for today.

By charting the times, and comparing them week by week, things are faster. Since we know that many people have called, and are told they are just waiting for an Interview, and by the time lines, we know that people's petitions are sitting there, until a computer time limit is reached and then it is sent out. Based on the fact that some people receive their P4 at widely varying times, for example cliff gets 59 days notice and rogerluli gets 15 days notice, yet their P3 to P4 time lines fall within the wait time trends. Let me further throw out the observation that Cliff gets notice a week before mine, yet has an Interview 10 days later than mine. Again, I think the data that is missing is probably names. So far, none of the time lines suggest that which center you come from makes a difference. Everyone's wait times increase until their P3 is entered into the computer, then the counting begins.

Of course I was surprised, since I fully expected my P4 to happen after Dogfish who also has provided a P3 entry date ahead of mine. However, as we have also seen, there can be as much as 20 days difference between two similar petitions, which again I will attribute possibly to last names.

I hope everyone will make note of the excellent time line John and Hai Yan provides, probably the most detailed and most informative of all that I have seen. Not too surprising since he was taking care of the list. I have copied his format for my time line ( for what I could find out), and highly recommend everyone to do this as well, because this data tells us a lot about what is going on. The next best informative time line I have found is Jeikan's.

John and Hai Yan, it seems to me based on the data we see, that GZ just holds our petitions after the name check, then it appears as if they use us a filler for the interview schedule(again perhaps by last name). Look at the schedule for the Philippines where they schedule almost all K1/K3 on either a Wednesday or Friday. My guess for an Interview was one week off.

Consistently, GZ is getting faster each month for the last four months over all. However, I would think all K1/K3 petitions go through the same name check process for all embassies, and so it appears that GZ simply chooses to delay ours, since Manila handles as much, if not more people per month, yet they are on par with the world average. I base that on their February schedule which showed 2600 interviews total. 500 of which were K1's. There is clearly a formula for when the P4 gets sent out, the interview date is questionable, but only varies by 20 days. I ended up being two weeks off in predicting my P4, because I still used the 120 day formula. I think that Dogfish should be the next one we hear about, but I expect three or four more on the 7th. Let all hope the trend continues.

Will the next list keeper please step foward.

[Trigg]

There will be no new list keeper. You have been declared the CFL statistician, for now, and for all times.

 

God i hated stats classes in grad school, didn't understand them then and don't understand them now. Z scores, T scores, chi squares, standard normal curve, F levels, Alpha levels- WTF does it all mean (not average but the other mean)

[Dogfish]

nooneufo, I am glad to see you got P4 early than me, you deserve that. as Trigg said that you were a good CFL statistician. thank you for you working. and I don't know when I will get my P4,but I believe that it will be soon.

 

Good luck!!

[Dan R]

Congratulations .... move to the front of the line. Hey Wait! Could this be a plot by GZ to remove our statistician and stop our plotting?

[warpedbored]

There are many reasons why someone with a later P-3 date may get P-4 before you. If their name check is finished faster is probably the big one. Also since there are only x amount of slots alloted each month for interviews if there is a cancellation they may take the next one off the stack and fill that slot. You may have filed earlier and get interview at the end of the month and someone else who filed later get an inteview early in the month. This could also explain why some have more notice before interview than others . If someone gets an interview with 2 weeks notice and another with 5 this could explain it. Of course this is all observational speculation, not many know the inner working of GZ the mysterious.