Modern spirit of the holiday.

[nooneufo]

It is important for me to know as far in advance as possible the interview date so that I can arrange my schedule to be able to be there when it happens (I need as much lead time as possible, more than a month). Since we can not get information reliably from our government (ever), I have decided to explore the field of statistical prediction.

Based on the past interview dates that John & Hai Yan has been providing, and some manual interpolation on my part I have come up with a method of predicting possible interview dates. Of course the prediction is only as good as the previous data. (And my manipulation of it, particulary towards removing the unusual lengths). If you would like me to add your prediction to my list, let me have the date you mailed the P3, or if you know it, the date the P3 was received at Guangzhou.

In keeping the New year prediction and fortunes, I should say I am not a fortune teller.

However,

If I guess right, you should send me money in appreciation.

If I should predict in the same week, you should send me money for a good try.

If I should not predict close at all, you should send me money so I can do better.

If none of these apply, feel free to send money anyway.

PS. If used for betting purposes, my fee is 37% of the take.

 

Notes:

"Prediction" column is based on that months week matching the P3 return week average.

"Month" column is based on that month average.

"3 Day" column is based on that month and week 3 day average of that matching week.

"5 Day" column is based on that month and week 5 day average of that matching week.

"7 Day" column is based on that month and week 7 day average of that matching week.

 

October is based on one data point, but I put it in for fun. Maybe Guangzhou is speeding up, hahahaha. (Yes, sarcastic laughter sounds like that).

 

 

CFL Member-----------P3 Returned---Prediction---Month-----3 Day------5 Day------7 Day

nooneufo (July)---------11/19/04-------05/21/05----05/19/05--05/21/05---05/20/05---05/19/05

nooneufo (Aug)---------11/19/04-------05/05/05----04/29/05--04/30/05---05/03/05---05/04/05

nooneufo (Sep)---------11/19/04-------05/07/05----05/14/05--05/06/05----05/06/05---05/07/05

nooneufo (Oct)---------11/19/04-------04/04/05----04/03/05--04/04/05---04/04/05---04/04/05

 

vibes1313 (July)--------12/13/04-------06/12/05----06/12/05--06/10/05---07/01/00---07/04/00

vibes1313 (Aug)--------12/13/04-------05/23/05----05/23/05--05/28/05---05/28/05---05/28/05

vibes1313 (Sep)---------12/13/04------06/02/05----12/13/04--06/04/05---06/04/05---06/04/05

vibes1313 (Oct)---------12/13/04------04/28/05----04/27/05--05/05/05---05/14/05---05/19/05

 

LiuXia's Husband (Jul)---01/06/05------07/15/05----07/06/05---07/12/05---07/14/05---07/17/05

LiuXia's Husband (Aug)--01/06/05------06/16/05----06/16/05---06/17/05---06/17/05---06/17/05

LiuXia's Husband (Sept)--01/06/05-----07/18/05-----07/01/05---07/07/05---07/03/05---06/27/05

LiuXia's Husband (Oct)---01/06/05-----05/22/05----05/21/05----05/22/05---05/22/05---05/22/05

[vibes1313]

I'm trying to remember the name of the soothsayer Johnny Carson played. The Great ________? We sent our P-3 from Shenzhen 12/12 or 13 but I'm not sure when they rec'd it. I'm guessing early June. I need to recount my yuan.

[LiuXia's Husband]

I like May 25. What do the numbers say?

[frank1538]

I'm trying to remember the name of the soothsayer Johnny Carson played. The Great ________? We sent our P-3 from Shenzhen 12/12 or 13 but I'm not sure when they rec'd it. I'm guessing early June. I need to recount my yuan.

That would be Karnak.

[C4Racer]

I quit trying to predict them. If you look at my time line and look at others, Pingxiu's interview should be late March, early April. I even called the week before and was told not yet. Then all of a sudden she gets the P4 with a March 8 date giving us a lead time of about 27 days. It doesn't seem you can predict based on other time lines.

 

Good luck,

Michael

[egolessvegan]

That is what makes life so interesting!

Ken

[nooneufo]

I agree there is no telling, but I can see if things keep going, the next two data points say there is a 40 day reduction in the average wait time. In case you want to do your own stat, here is my stat sheet.

 

P3 Returned------------Averages-------3 day---5 day--7 day

Jul 1 week--------------190--------------188-----190----193

Jul 2 week--------------181--------------180-----184-----187

Jul 3 week--------------183--------------183-----183-----182

Jul 4 week--------------171--------------171-----171-----171

Jul Month Smooth------181--------------180------182----183

 

Aug 1 week-------------162-------------162------162----163

Aug 2 week-------------162-------------166------166----166

Aug 3 week-------------167-------------162-------166---167

Aug 4 week-------------154-------------170-------168----176

Aug Month Smooth------161-------------165-------166----168

 

Sep 1 week--------------193-------------182------178-----173

Sep 2 week--------------171-------------173------173-----173

Sep 3 week--------------169-------------169------169-----169

Sep 4 week--------------174-------------174-------173----172

Sept Month Smooth------177-------------174-------173----172

 

Oct 1 week

Oct 2 week

Oct 3 week

Oct 4 week--------------136-------------143-------153-----157

Oct Month Smooth-------136-------------143-------153----157