Behind the Taiwan issue

[Randy W]

10 Things You May Not Know About Satchel Paige

Fans fell in love with his windmill windups, relentless trash talk and leisurely strolls to the mound, and they were especially taken in by his penchant for showboating. One of his favorite moves was to call in his outfielders and then singlehandedly strike out the other side. According to Paige, an even more famous stunt came during a Negro League World Series game in 1942, when he intentionally walked two batters so that he could face power hitter Josh Gibson with the bases loaded. After taunting Gibson and warning him about where he intended to place each throw, Paige struck him out in three pitches.

 

 

[Randy W]

Leroy aside, the problem with the Taiwan issue is that Taiwan is at the center of it. There is a pro-independence faction within Taiwan, but there is also a side that wants to cozy up to Beijing. From the NY Times

 

 

If Donald Trump Pushes on Taiwan, How China Could Push Back

 

Taiwan

If Mr. Trump supports Taiwan, China’s first response may be to punish Taiwan rather than the United States, in an attempt to diminish its value to Washington.

It could begin by intensifying efforts to persuade the 22 small sovereignties around the world, including the Vatican, that still maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan to sever them and recognize China instead.

China might then take aim at Taiwan’s economy by restricting Chinese investments and limiting the number of Chinese tourists to Taiwan.

Taiwan already has de facto independence, but China has warned that it will go to war to prevent it a formal separation from the mainland.

From Beijing’s perspective, the fear is that Mr. Trump’s moves could encourage Taiwan to declare independence or that other nations might follow the United States in recognizing Taiwan.

If President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan declared independence, “and the whole world says Taiwan is independent,” then China “will take military action,” said Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University. “But I don’t believe that is Tsai’s intention,” he added.

[Randy W]

in the Global Times

 

Mainland must shape Taiwan’s future

The US will not encourage Taiwan to declare independence, but in the meantime will not sit back and watch China use force to conquer Taiwan in any case, said Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the US House of Representatives, on Tuesday. He said the message US President-elect Donald Trump is sending to Beijing is that China should not be so "strong and aggressive."

As a firm supporter of Trump, Gingrich is considered as one of the influential figures in Trump's team, yet he is not in the cabinet.

. . .

It might be time for the Chinese mainland to reformulate its Taiwan policy, make the use of force as a main option and carefully prepare for it. Once Taiwan independence forces violate the Anti-Secession Law, the Chinese mainland can in no time punish them militarily. Moreover, getting ready to achieve reunification through the use of force can pose a serious deterrence to Taiwan independence.

The military status quo across the Taiwan Straits needs to be reshaped as a response and punishment to the current administration of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)'s destruction of the political status quo in cross-Straits ties. And we should also foster forces which support reunification through a variety of ways on the island.

The future of Taiwan must not be shaped by the DPP and Washington, but by the Chinese mainland. It is hoped that peace in the Taiwan Straits won't be disrupted. But the Chinese mainland should display its resolution to recover Taiwan by force. Peace does not belong to cowards.

 

[Randy W]

in the NY Times - is anyone surprised?

 

Taiwan’s President Accuses China of Renewed Intimidation

 

 

“Step by step, Beijing is going back to the old path of dividing, coercing and even threatening and intimidating Taiwan,” she told journalists in Taipei, the capital, at a year-end news conference.

 

. . .

 

Despite Beijing’s recent actions, which she said had “hurt the feelings” of the Taiwanese people and destabilized relations, Ms. Tsai vowed to avoid a confrontation.

“We will not bow to pressure, and we will of course not revert to the old path of confrontation,” she said.

Ms. Tsai faces the delicate task of registering discontent with Beijing while also sending a message that Taiwan will exercise restraint. The United States, which sees Taiwan as one of its most reliable allies in Asia and has sold billions of dollars of weapons to the island, has long sought to avoid a conflict between the two sides.

. . .

Many people in Taiwan are nervous that Mr. Trump will use the island as a bargaining chip against China. And Ms. Tsai’s preference for stability in the region may not mesh with Mr. Trump’s bombastic style.

Richard C. Bush, the director of the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said Ms. Tsai understood the need to “maintain a balance among relations with China, relations with the United States and domestic politics.”

Ms. Tsai’s vision, however, “may not align well with the incoming Trump administration’s apparent belief that it can pressure China on all fronts more than the Obama administration has,” he said.

Ms. Tsai also sought to quell concerns about planned stopovers in Houston and San Francisco during a visit to Central America scheduled for January.

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Thursday called on the United States to block Ms. Tsai from entering the country, warning that such a visit would embolden independence activists in Taiwan.

Ms. Tsai described the visit as “unofficial,” saying, “A transit stop is just a transit stop.”

 

[Allon]

Some good articles there, Randy. There is a lot of worry about stabilization in the area. I do agree with one statement: if Taiwan declares its independence, China will likely go military. I sure would like to see how Okinawa looks from a satellite photo. I have no doubt the build up there is tremendous.

 

China's last foray over Taiwan was to shell Quemoy and Matsu. Hope they don't go there.

 

As an aside but directly relevant, I have felt a long time ago that Duterte in the Philippines is going to get ousted. Well, here it is.

 

 

 

In a radio interview Monday, Andanar said a Cabinet member who is currently in New York has heard of a plan to oust Duterte by January 2017.

http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2016/09/20/malacanang-andanar-duterte-coup-plot.html

 

He won't have the US to blame.

[warpedbored]

Interesting stuff. I would bet money that the US is involved in this somewhere.

[chilton747]

Seeing as China is ALL about money, I can't see them risking a loss of income from the USA.

[Randy W]

Trump needs to understand what he's stepping into - and how it may affect Taiwan

Reuters:

Chinese state tabloid warns Trump, end one China policy and China will take revenge

Beijing had asked Washington not to allow Tsai to enter the United States and that she not have any formal government meetings under the one China policy.

A photograph tweeted by Texas Governor Greg Abbott shows him meeting Tsai, with a small table between them adorned with the U.S., Texas and Taiwanese flags. Tsai also met Texas Senator Ted Cruz.

 

 

 

the Global Times

One-China policy not a capricious request

 

Trump is yet to be inaugurated, and there is no need for Beijing to sacrifice bilateral ties for the sake of Taiwan. But in case he tears up the one-China policy after taking office, the mainland is fully prepared. Beijing would rather break ties with the US if necessary. We would like to see whether US voters will support their president to ruin Sino-US relations and destabilize the entire Asia-Pacific region.

Beijing does not need to feel grateful to Trump for not meeting Tsai. The one-China policy is the basic principle reiterated in the three Sino-US joint Communiqués. It is also the foundation of the profound bilateral relationship. Sticking to this principle is not a capricious request by China upon US presidents, but an obligation of US presidents to maintain China-US relations and respect the existing order of the Asia-Pacific. If Trump reneges on the one-China policy after taking office, the Chinese people will demand the government to take revenge. There is no room for bargaining.

The Trump-Tsai call indicates the eruption of the Taiwan independence tendency by Tsai authorities. The mainland should mobilize all possible measures to squeeze Taiwan's diplomacy as well as deal a heavy blow to Taiwan's economy. It should also impose military pressure on Taiwan and push it to the edge of being reunified by force, so as to effectively affect the approval rating of the Tsai administration.

 

[Randy W]

. . . and the SCMP

 

US Senator Ted Cruz meets Taiwan’s Tsai in Texas and fires a broadside at Beijing

 

Cruz added that he and Tsai discussed “arms sales, diplomatic exchanges and economic relations”, and that he hoped to increase trade between Texas and Taiwanese markets.

In a separate statement , Abbott said he and Tsai discussed agriculture and gas trade, and exchanged gifts. Tsai received “a clock bearing the Texas State Seal”, Abbott said, and the governor received a vase.

Abbott said the issues discussed were energy, trade relations and commercial ties between Taiwan and Texas.

 

 

[chilton747]

A lot of saber rattling going on that's for sure. But money will be the clear winner here.

 

China has never had conflict with Taiwan. They don't have anything to gain by conflict.

[Randy W]

The Global Times takes a poll (video) . . .

 

85.1% respondents supported reunifying Taiwan by force, according to a poll taken by the Global Times in this April.

 

 

 

Do you support reunifying Taiwan by force?

 

This direct link to the video may or may not work for you

 

http://23.248.179.17/223/36/32/bcloud/860672/ver_00_22-1081008718-avc-418736-aac-48000-100601-6032498-40677b3eb49093d941faec481db16dcd-1484061324333_mp4/ver_00_22_3_3_3_542192_812912_0.ts?crypt=16aa7f2e538&b=479&nlh=4096&nlt=60&bf=90&p2p=1&video_type=mp4&termid=1&tss=ios&platid=2&splatid=207&its=0&qos=5&fcheck=0&amltag=59888&mltag=59888&path=23.248.171.208&proxy=402177427,1728513736,467476956&uid=2918172550.rp&keyitem=GOw_33YJAAbXYE-cnQwpfLlv_b2zAkYctFVqe5bsXQpaGNn3T1-vhw..&ntm=1484311800&nkey=5d9253010722b94a1c909a5c0d2dec88&nkey2=fd2e64a848b93ac7fc3f5c25ab4192a4&geo=US-70-0-100&mmsid=219313683&tm=1484293771989&key=ebe392990fc3327fba3ce4049540047d&payff=0&cuid=860672&vtype=13&dur=100&p1=3&p2=30&p3=300&cf=flash&p=101&playid=0&tag=flash&sign=bcloud_860672&pay=0&ostype=windows&hwtype=un&ctv=pc&m3v=1&ch=860672&tn=0.5821394775994122&uuid=6940AEF8B9AD0FC95F2B040DE0A51381852547EA&vid=39566977&rateid=16&errc=0&gn=950&vrtmcd=105&buss=59888&cips=173.239.199.134&ch=860672&p1=3&p2=30&p3=300&appid=500&rd=1484293786160

[Greg.D.]

I have to give credit to the gullible times for including all opinions there.

 

On the other hand, they should be careful: if the GT is advertising the consensus for reunification, then I suppose Taiwan could use that as justification for re-taking the mainland by force and deposing Mao's party.

[Allon]

Crazy as it sounds, it might be the answer, but it has to gain ground.

[Randy W]

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 10, 2017

BREAKING NEWS

http://promotions.scmp.com/images/marketing/edt_newsletter/breakingnews/scmp_logo.png 10 FEBRUARY, 2017, 01:14 PM

Trump reaffirms one-China policy in surprise phone call with Xi Jinping

 

US President Donald Trump has reaffirmed the one-China policy in his first phone call with China's President Xi Jinping after taking office.

 

Copyright © 2017 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved

 

 

Trump made the pledge at Xi’s request, according to the White House.

“The two leaders discussed numerous topics and President Trump agreed, at the request of President Xi, to honour our one-China policy,” the White House said in a statement.

 

 

[Greg.D.]

Or, an AP version of the story:

 

http://www.denverpost.com/2017/02/09/trump-one-china-xi-phone-call/

 

I'm relieved to think the specter of war has faded now; back to just ordinary quibbling and pissing contests.