China (and others) on North Korea

[Randy W]

More from "the news" (SCMP, in this case)

 

China will back tougher sanctions as North Korea threat grows, say analysts

Beijing was reluctant to totally shut down oil supplies to North Korea, fearing it would topple the regime and lead to an influx of refugees. North Korea acts as a buffer between China and South Korea, a close US military ally.

 

Chinese customs data last week showed that China did not export any diesel and petrol to North Korea in October. It was the first time since July 2015 that China sold no petrol to the North and first time since August 2016 it sold no diesel.

 

[Allon]

The North Korean soldier who defected and was shot is recovering the hospital. They found raw and hard corn in his stomach along with a huge tape or ribbon worm. He had been starving. This is a highly vetted for loyalty soldier. His compatriots were likely shot for letting him get away.

 

That has been the story with many refugees who dared death to escape.

 

I really feel for the NK people. What is going through their mind? I just hope this thing gets settled without blood shed. It will be very bloody otherwise. I hate war.

[Randy W]

. . . as it thickens.In the SCMP

 

Will 2018 see war in North Korea? Chances soar after year of tumult

Beijing’s advisers have urged it to prepare for conflict as early as next year

 

 

Reflecting the seriousness of the past 12 months’ events, Beijing’s advisers recently urged it to prepare for war that could come to the Korean peninsula as early as 2018.

So far, there is no sign the crisis can be reversed.

 

 

 

In graphics -

Getting to grips with North Korea in 15 graphics

[Randy W]

A New Year's message from the Little Big One himself - video

 

Kim Jong-un says ‘nuclear button is on my desk’, as he announces plan to mass produce and deploy warheads

‘The entire United States is within range of our nuclear weapons … this is reality, not a threat’

 

 

A nicely done video - skip ahead to 5:30 to see the fireworks, or watch the video in the SCMP article

 

 

https://youtu.be/nt1Wq7t3FPU

[Allon]

Heard on the radio (NPR) this morning the Little Fat Boy is amenable to talking now that he feels he has leverage.

 

Now if only we could get a seasoned diplomat to do the talking for us....

[Greg.D.]

No, only wants to talk to Moon, the leader of SK at the moment .. who himself is thinking along the lines of rapprochement. Not really in sync with US plans (whatever they are). Note also his intention to go large with his arsenal in 2018:

 

"SEOUL, South Korea — Beyond a New Year’s declaration by North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, that he would move to the mass production of nuclear weapons and intercontinental missiles in 2018 lies a canny new strategy to initiate direct talks with South Korea in the hope of driving a wedge into its seven-decade alliance with the United States."

 

Will be interesting to see how the U.S. works out something with the South - or, is that what you meant? Seems like Abe is the leader we want in SK; unfortunately he's Japanese.

[Randy W]

No, only wants to talk to Moon, the leader of SK at the moment .. who himself is thinking along the lines of rapprochement. Not really in sync with US plans (whatever they are). Note also his intention to go large with his arsenal in 2018:

 

"SEOUL, South Korea — Beyond a New Year’s declaration by North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, that he would move to the mass production of nuclear weapons and intercontinental missiles in 2018 lies a canny new strategy to initiate direct talks with South Korea in the hope of driving a wedge into its seven-decade alliance with the United States."

 

Will be interesting to see how the U.S. works out something with the South - or, is that what you meant? Seems like Abe is the leader we want in SK; unfortunately he's Japanese.

 

 

A North Korean coordination with South Korea would seem to be in EVERYONE's best interest.

[Allon]

Yes, if only it could be left alone to happen. The US will have to be involved if only as a patient (haha) father in the process.

 

If have a feeling Kim Jong-Un is crazy like a fox, not crazy as our side is. He was educated in the the West so he understands western ways. He might just ignore the sabre rattling and reach a rapprochement with ROK now that he feels he has leverage.

 

But will his own people go along with him as they slowly starve....He might run out of money to pay his generals if the embargo is successful.

[Randy W]

from Reuters, in the Houston Chronicle

 

Tillerson and Mattis are reportedly trying to hold Trump back from striking North Korea

 

 

• • President Donald Trump's secretaries of state and defense are trying to persuade him not to strike North Korea, while his national security adviser is pushing for a "bloody nose" attack, according to recent reports in The Telegraph and The Wall Street Journal.
  • Rex Tillerson, the secretary of state, has reportedly been key in pushing for peace, but he may be on his way out.
  • A US strike would mean it implicitly trusts that North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, wouldn't escalate it into an all-out war that could kill millions.

   

[Allon]

"Implicitly trust" is something I would not bet the farm on.

[Greg.D.]

Reading in WAPO, NK's strikes on Seoul would cause 100,000 deaths In first 48 hours. A full war played out to its logical conclusions would produce 200,000 - 300,000 SK and U.S. Military casualties in first 90 days - civilian deaths not included.

 

Pentagon prefers a ground invasion to destroy all the nuclear sites.

https://lieu.house.gov/sites/lieu.house.gov/files/Response%20to%20TWL-RG%20Letter%20on%20NK.pdf

.... but, then, they expect NK to heavily use biological weapons

 

Congressional Research Service predicts that, to follow through on treaty obligations with ROK, 690,000 additional forces, 160 ships and 2000 aircraft could be assigned to the operation. Which we can't fulfill right now.

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R44994.pdf (great link of unclassified info)

 

The, there's the possibility China gets involved, though Russia might use the opportunity to invade an Eastern European country or two they've had their eye on. And, I could see Kim, after a US invasion, lobbing a nuke into Japan, just because they can and then maybe you have a China vs Japan conflict, as if a US vs China wouldn't be bad enough

[chilton747]

<p>

 

from Reuters, in the Houston Chronicle

Tillerson and Mattis are reportedly trying to hold Trump back from striking North Korea

 

 

•  

• President Donald Trump's secretaries of state and defense are trying to persuade him not to strike North Korea, while his national security adviser is pushing for a "bloody nose" attack, according to recent reports in The Telegraph and The Wall Street Journal.
• Rex Tillerson, the secretary of state, has reportedly been key in pushing for peace, but he may be on his way out.
• A US strike would mean it implicitly trusts that North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, wouldn't escalate it into an all-out war that could kill millions.

Fake news

[Randy W]

North Korea in action! from the SCMP

 

How did barely connected North Korea become a hacking superpower?

North Korea’s most promising hackers are sent to Shenyang, in China, before being unleashed upon the US and other enemies

 

 

North Korea is one of the least wired nations on Earth. It has two internet connections to the outside world, one that crosses the Yalu River into China, and the other plugs into Russia’s Far East. Even with that, its internet traffic is scant.

“It’s infinitesimally small for a country,” said Doug Madory, director of analysis for the Oracle Internet Intelligence team, comparing the traffic to “a small corporate office.”

 

. . .

 

In early 2016, they plundered US$81 million from the central bank of Bangladesh. They’ve besieged neighbouring South Korea with attacks. They’ve hit targets in Vietnam, Poland and Mexico. They’ve looted bitcoin exchanges.

In May 2017, hackers unleashed the WannaCry attack that took down computers in 150 countries, using a cybertool that a top US intelligence agency lost.

. . .

A wake-up call came in February 2016, when news emerged of attacks on banks in Bangladesh and Southeast Asia that reaped a windfall and may have helped Pyongyang withstand economic sanctions imposed to curb its nuclear and ballistic missile programme.

. . .

The hackers surveilled the global banking system and mastered the arcane global messaging service known as Swift (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication).

Swift is used by 11,000 banks and companies and is the backbone of global money transfers, the congressional report says.

North Korean hackers spoofed requests from the Bangladesh central bank to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to transfer money to accounts in the Philippines, ordering some US$1 billion to be transferred.

The New York bank rejected most of the requests, but US$81 million got through and vanished.

At the same time, the hackers peppered banks in other countries, including Poland, Vietnam and Mexico, with SWIFT demands for transfers.

“Some of the SWIFT incidents required very complex technical schemes,” said John Hultquist, leader of the intelligence team at FireEye iSIGHT, a threat analysis company.

 

 

[Allon]

Hacking SWIFT accounts is brilliant. If that is done, they have the pulse on the entire world's economic heart beat.

 

I would love to be a white hat hacker. I would find the accounts they transfer the money to and raid them to the point of bankruptcy at a minimum.When we get to the point of affecting them personally, by individual, we might finally stop this criminal enterprise. But sometimes I do wonder if there isn't some snse of Robin Hooding going on.

 

It's stealing from the stealers, from the stealers.

[Randy W]

in the SCMP AND Bloomberg

 

Kim Jong-un ‘is in Beijing on first-known trip outside North Korea since 2011’ ahead of possible US meeting say multiple sources

A high police presence in Beijing and at the North Korean border suggested a high-profile diplomat was in the country - now sources say Kim is actually in the country

PUBLISHED : Monday, 26 March, 2018, 8:44pm

UPDATED : Tuesday, 27 March, 2018, 12:00am

 

 

 

 

The reports come after a heavy police presence was noted at the border of China and North Korea, and at a Beijing hotel popular with foreign dignitaries, according to sources who spoke to the South China Morning Post.

 

. . .

 

Sources said that security had also been stepped up in recent days in Dandong, Liaoning province, a city in northeastern China that borders North Korea, in preparation for a train carrying the official passing through.

 

Beijing has yet to confirm whether a North Korean official is visiting. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it was unaware of the issue.