China on the South China Seas

[Randy W]

in the LA Times

In U.S.-China game of chicken over South China Sea, KFC feels the heat

What you eat is American KFC; what is lost is the face of our ancestors.— A banner outside a KFC restaurant in Tangshan, China

 

“If there is a war, every bomb the U.S. uses on us will have some share of your money,” he chides. “If you stop now, you are still Chinese. If you enter, when the U.S. and the Philippines start the war, you will all be traitors." The prospective customers then appear to walk away.

[Randy W]

Money talks and bull**** walks. I have already heard from the wife reading her Chinese news sites that there already has been a meeting with China and the Philippines. China does not want the US there again what ever the cost.

 

from Reuters -

 

Philippines says rejected China offer of conditional dialogue on South China Sea dispute

The Philippines has turned down a Chinese proposal to start bilateral talks, its foreign minister said on Tuesday, because of Beijing's pre-condition of not discussing a court ruling that nullified most of its South China Sea claims.

 

. . .

 

"We are not yet engaged in bilateral talks with anyone," he said. "But I would like to see how we can pursue certain provisional arrangements so that it would lead to opening of bilateral or multilateral engagements should that be necessary."

[Randy W]

. . . and in the Global Times

 

 

South China Sea boycotts do not represent the country’s stance on an open market

It seems that it is necessary to clarify China's attitude toward foreign investment at this sensitive moment, and we believe the government will not deviate from its route of deepening reform and opening- up simply because of the South China Sea dispute. Following the release of the judgment in the international arbitration over the South China Sea, we have seen little effect on intergovernmental economic communications.

 

. . .

 

Additionally, as the economy faces increasing downward pressure, the participation of foreign enterprises, some of which have advanced technology and management experience, is needed in China's efforts to push forward its economic restructuring to pursue sustainable development. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on June 28 that China still needs foreign enterprises and the government will continue to ease market access for overseas investment to build an environment for fair competition.

It seems unlikely with those words ringing in our ears that the government will turn a blind eye to the boycotts if such civil actions hinder the process of China's economic expansion. Despite broad challenges the country faces as it pushed toward its globalized economy, such efforts cannot be allowed to stop or go backward.

 

[Randy W]

More on the stand-off between the Philippines and China from Fortune Magazine

 

Despite Legal Victory in South China Sea, Philippines' Oil Remains in Troubled Waters

 

The Philippines, eager to resume development of vital oil and gas reserves off its coast, will likely need to reach an accord with a Chinese government infuriated by last week’s ruling that granted Manila a big victory in the South China Sea.

 

The Philippines relies overwhelmingly on imports to fuel its fast-growing economy. That reliance will grow further in a few years when the main source of domestic natural gas runs out, so the clock is ticking for it to develop offshore fields that China shows no sign of loosening its grip on.

 

. . .

 

And as long as things stay that way, the Philippines will have a hard time finding much-needed foreign expertise willing to risk upsetting China, officials and experts say.

 

According to U.S. oilfield services company Weatherford, one concession – SC 72 – contains 2.6-8.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. That would be as much as triple the amount discovered at the Malampaya project, an offshore field that powers 40% of the main island of Luzon, home to the capital Manila.

 

Malampaya, which was developed by Royal Dutch Shell and began operations in 2001, is approaching the end of its productive life. Its only viable replacements are in waters that China insists it will not cede.

 

 

[Randy W]

. . . and in ForeignPolicy.com

 

How to Explain Xi Jinping’s Mounting Foreign-Policy Failures

 

 

It defies the imagination that Xi Jinping’s foreign policy has had the unintended consequence of promoting U.S. interests and strengthening Obama’s “rebalance” — success that the State Department or the Pentagon couldn’t match on their best day.

How to explain all this? After the 2008-2009 U.S. financial crisis, Chinese analysts mistakenly concluded that the United States was in terminal decline, and that China’s moment had come to undo a century of humiliation by asserting its influence rather than biding its time as it developed its economy.

Thus, Chinese strategy is based on flawed assumptions: that China, with geography on its side, is getting bigger and militarily stronger, and that a declining United States will gradually leave the region. Asian nations will have no choice but to pay deference to China’s interests. The intriguing question is: With all of Xi’s bad bets going sour, will his Politburo comrades treat him like most companies would treat a demonstrably failed CEO?

 

 

[Randy W]

in the SCMP. For our trip to Hainan in 2011, we stayed at a hotel on Yalong Bay, where the Yulin Naval Base ("a large scale underground base for its naval forces") is located.

 

South China Sea air strips’ main role is ‘to defend Hainan nuclear submarine base’

The real reason for China’s construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea is to provide a ring of protection for its fleet of advanced nuclear submarines based on the southern tip of Hainan Island, experts say

 

http://www.scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/486w/public/images/methode/2016/07/24/f0177f42-50fd-11e6-ba91-9b331c0ddad9_486x.jpg?itok=JhkeG5E5

 

But the South China Sea features underground submarine facilities with a tunnel access, shielding Chinese submarines that enter the South China Sea from the prying eyes of US reconnaissance satellites.

“No matter what the international arbitration rulings said, China will keep pushing ahead with its maritime ambitions in the South China Sea because it regards it as a ‘fortress’ that will enable its military expansion,” Beijing-based military commentator Song Zhongping told the Sunday Post.

“The South China Sea provides the only route for China to establish itself as a real maritime power.

 

[Greg.D.]

"And, as long as we're establishing ourselves as a real maritime power, you won't mind that we take all your oil, gas and fish since we're going to be there anyway"

[Allon]

If this is China's strategic plan it lacks a certain logic. Just look east of Hainan and see Vietnam and Thailand as major military powers, not that they would be allies but they both have no abiding love of China. We are beefing up Vietnam's military along with the other countries who are along the 9 dash line. Putting the right missiles on their aircraft places a threat right in their back yard. Also, the cat and mouse game of submarines getting out of their base is a long one with a history. Subs do this kind of chasing all the time. They will literally wait for a sub to try and get to the open sea and follow it.

 

Not that subs can't get lost. There is a not-so-secret undersea system of sonar, acoustics and vibration detection equipment laid throughout the world. It is a fairly reliable system and can detect sub cavitation when a sub does cavitate and it must when it moves.

 

Subs are lovely little creatures but the Chinese I hope are not relying on them for some singular strategic advantage. They have a big army. Always have.

[Randy W]

China's propaganda hits Times Square - in the Shanghaiist

 

Chinese propaganda video on South China Sea will be played 120 times everyday in Times Square

The state-run Xinhua announced Tuesday that a 3 minute long publicity video premiered on the Square’s “China Screen” since last Saturday.

The screen sits on 2 Times Square, the famous building to the north end of the square, that has been leased to Xinhua since 2011.

 

https://youtu.be/y4KIWLgUSmc - click link to YouTube, embedded playback has been disabled

[Greg.D.]

Why China Matters – U.S. Could Loose Offshore Drilling Rights To EEZ

 

http://gcaptain.com/why-china-matters-u-s-could-loose-offshore-drilling-rights-to-eez/

The U.S. and other coastal nations could lose millions of square nautical miles of ocean that are now in their exclusive economic zones. The loss would be an indirect result of an arbitration panel’s ruling on China’s dispute with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

Largely overlooked in the tribunal’s July 12 decision was a strict interpretation of which dry land is entitled to a 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone—the surrounding ocean where a nation has sole rights to fish, drill for oil, and search for minerals.

[Randy W]

the Global Times bad-mouths Australia over its position on the ruling

 

‘Paper cat’ Australia will learn its lesson

Source:Global Times Published: 2016/7/30 0:23:01

 

 

 

Australia is a unique country with an inglorious history. It was at first an offshore prison of the UK and then became its colony, a source of raw materials, overseas market and land of investment. This country was established through uncivilized means, in a process filled with the tears of the aboriginals.

 

. . .

 

Australia calls itself a principled country, while its utilitarianism has been sizzling. It lauds Sino-Australian relations when China's economic support is needed, but when it needs to please Washington, it demonstrates willingness of doing anything in a show of allegiance.

Analysts say that besides trying to please the US, it also intends to suppress China so as to gain a bargaining chip for economic interests. China must take revenge and let it know it's wrong. Australia's power means nothing compared to the security of China. If Australia steps into the South China Sea waters, it will be an ideal target for China to warn and strike.

Australia is not even a "paper tiger," it's only a "paper cat" at best. At a time when its former caretaker country the UK is dedicated to developing relations with China, and almost the whole of Europe takes a neutral position, Australia has unexpectedly made itself a pioneer of hurting China's interest with a fiercer attitude than countries directly involved in the South China Sea dispute. But this paper cat won't last.

 

[Greg.D.]

the Global Times bad-mouths Australia over its position on the ruling

 

"Bad mouths"? That's just short of a declaration of war. And, given that it's in English, it's not for internal consumption.

 

How do they back down from that?

[Randy W]

 

the Global Times bad-mouths Australia over its position on the ruling

 

"Bad mouths"? That's just short of a declaration of war. And, given that it's in English, it's not for internal consumption.

 

How do they back down from that?

 

 

 

It's simply a Global Times editorial. One thing you'll find about Foreign Policy and Military matters is that they speak with a WIDE range of official voices, and not at all coordinated. It's probably their weakest area of coordination. That is, it probably IS from a point of view intended for internal consumption, but without supervision from the Military or Foreign Affairs ministries allowed to leak out in this way.

[Randy W]

This from Reuters:

 

'Give them a bloody nose': Xi pressed for stronger South China Sea response

China's leadership is resisting pressure from elements within the military for a more forceful response to an international court ruling against Beijing's claims in the South China Sea, sources said, wary of provoking a clash with the United States.

 

. . .

 

But some elements within China's increasingly confident military are pushing for a stronger - potentially armed - response aimed at the United States and its regional allies, according to interviews with four sources with close military and leadership ties.

"The People's Liberation Army is ready," one source with ties to the military told Reuters.

"We should go in and give them a bloody nose like Deng Xiaoping did to Vietnam in 1979," the source said, referring to China's brief invasion of Vietnam to punish Hanoi for forcing Beijing's ally the Khmer Rouge from power in Cambodia.

The sources requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

President Xi Jinping has assiduously courted and thoroughly cemented his leadership over the PLA and faces no serious challenges to his command.

 

 

 

 

You regularly hear military bluster leaking out. As near as I can tell, though, it is insignificant. But keep your fingers crossed.

[Randy W]

A little item about the state of their aircraft carrier in the SCMP yesterday

 

Fatal crash of Chinese J-15 carrier jet puts question mark over troubled programme

Mainland report confirms fighter pilot died after failure during test run of aircraft

 

 

Macau-based military expert Antony Wong Dong warned that the fatal accident might indicate that the J-15 was not of high enough standard for an aircraft carrier, which would be a major disappointment to the navy.

 

“As was with case with accidents during trial flights of the Su-27s in the 1980s, the reason behind the crash of the J-15 could either be a failure in the flight control system or a problem with production quality,” Wong said.

Canada-based Kanwa Defence Review reported in January that the programme for the development of the J-15 was well behind the demands of the navy, with the aircraft’s maker, Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, managing to deliver no more than 10 of the planes between 2012 and 2015.

 

Some military observer suggested that the People’s Liberation Army might reconsider its commitment to the J-15, but Wong said he thought the reverse might be the case. “As there is no alternative in sight, I think the Chinese military will not abandon its plan but be forced to go on building J-15s,” Wong said.