China on the South China Seas

[Randy W]

in the SCMP

 

Beijing outmanoeuvres US in the South China Sea – at least for now

Mark J. Valencia says Manila’s acceptance of Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea shows that the erosion of US influence is real, though probably overstated by hand-wringing Asia policy pundits

The struggle between China and other claimants for political domination of the South China Sea is over, for now. China has won this round. This is a political setback for the US, which supported the other claimants – Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. Indeed, what US President Donald Trump said and did not say during his recent Asian trip and statements emanating from recent Asean-hosted summits convinced many observers that China has gained the diplomatic edge over rival claimants and the US.

 

The “China wins” perception is reflected in many observers’ comments. Ely Ratner, of the US Council on Foreign Relations, says “the South China Sea has fallen victim to a combination of Trump’s narrow focus on North Korea and the administration’s chaotic and snail-paced policymaking process”. Jay Batongbacal, director of the University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea adds, “Asean countries are willing to move on, failing to make China accountable for the militarisation”.

 

 

. . . and just who is Mark Valencia?

 

Mark J. Valencia

Dr Mark J. Valencia is an internationally known maritime policy analyst, political commentator and consultant focused on Asia. He is the author or editor of some 15 books and more than 100 peer-reviewed journal articles. Currently he is adjunct senior scholar at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies

 

That's "in Haikou, China"

[Greg.D.]

Thanks for tracking that down, Randy. I was slogging my way through the process using my phone and switching apps when I finally noticed your second quote.

 

To paraphrase a Weather aphorism: if you don’t like Duterte’s position on something, wait 5 minutes (and it will change).

 

Although I do kinda agree that we’ve lost our way there.

[Allon]

Meanwhile, "word" has it that several US submarines on TS orders (normal for a submarine) have been dispatched to "Japan." I am not liking the sound of that. It is not a normal rotation.

[Randy W]

in the SCMP

 

US accuses Beijing of ‘provocative militarisation’ of South China Sea

US State Department adviser says China is pushing around smaller states with rival claims and limiting navigation in international waters

 

 

Beijing announced it had opened four air routes last week, without consulting the Taiwanese authorities.

 

It comes as Beijing presses ahead with a massive military modernisation programme, including building new aircraft carriers and stealth fighters to give it the ability to project its power far from its shores. The mainland has also carried out “island encirclement patrols” near Taiwan, which it considers a breakaway Chinese province.

“We oppose these kinds of unilateral actions,” Hook said. “We encourage the authorities in Beijing and Taipei to engage in constructive dialogue on issues related to civil aviation.”

Taiwan has strongly criticised the creation of the air flight paths, saying Beijing’s move threatens regional security.

 

 

[Randy W]

in the SCMP

 

China ‘warns off’ US destroyer near South China Sea’s strategic Scarborough Shoal

Beijing insists on its claim over the islets as USS Hopper enters area, foreign ministry says

 

 

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said on Saturday that the USS Hopper missile destroyer sailed within 12 nautical miles of the Scarborough Shoal, called Huangyan Island in China, on Wednesday night.

“The Chinese navy carried out identification and verification procedures in accordance with the law and warned the US vessel to leave,” Lu said.

“China is strongly dissatisfied with the [uS action] and will take necessary measures to firmly safeguard its sovereignty.”

 

 

[Allon]

It is going to happen. We sail close to the coast to get radar readings. We have been doing that since the start of the Cold War.

 

And in the sea, we sail there to establish the use of an "open ocean" not subject to the ownership claims of China.

 

It is going to happen, when a US ship (call it the Pueblo) will be boarded outside any 12 mile buffer zone (that is what it is).

 

Let's see what our president does about that.

[wawster]

We've done that for years. I was on the USS Farragut back in 77 when Kadafi claimed a 200 mile territorial limit off the coast of Libya. We paraded back and forth at 13 miles out, and when they sent out the Libyan air force, we put missiles on the rail, and the Independence 30 miles behind us sent out a bunch of F14s. We also sent them a message that if they came within 5 miles of our ships, we'd blow them out of the sky.

The Libyan air force was recalled post-haste.

 

This would be a different encounter, however. It could get rather nasty.

[Randy W]

in the SCMP

 

‘At least 12 crew members killed’ in Chinese military plane crash

Incident during exercise in Guizhou shows ‘imperfect’ aircraft might not be up to the task of intensive drills in the region, military source says

 

 

A military aircraft crash in Guizhou this week killed at least a dozen crew members and exposed the “fatal gap” between the air force’s ambitions and its technology, the South China Morning Post has learned.

 

Military sources say the crash has severely affected air force morale.

The People’s Liberation Army Air Force has confirmed that an aircraft crashed in the southwestern province during a training exercise on Monday.

It did not give details of the casualties or type of aircraft involved, but a source close to the air force told the Post that at least a dozen crew members were killed. It was a new type of refuelling plane modified from the air force’s Y-8 transport aircraft, the source said.

 

[Allon]

Reading about this incodent of losing crewman and aircraft, is much like the book I recently read by Ed Epstein, Deception: The Invisible War Between the KGB and CIA.

 

He discusses how the Japanese deceived the US and the West about their military power, namely the air force. When they would have air shows, the Japanese showed up with the oldest aircraft, biplanes basically, and engaged pilots to fly hundreds of planes, some of whom were not even eligible to fly due to not being even 18 years old. Crashes were often and justified as part of the deception. Meanwhile, Japan was secretly training a modern air force using the latest in aircraft technology (the Japanese Zero), and effectively used it in the devastating raid on Pearl Harbor.

 

The more mistakes the Chinese make, the stronger they get.

[Randy W]

A VERY interesting article that's VERY difficult to summarize - go read it if you're interested.

 

 

WHAT’S BEHIND BEIJING’S SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVES – AND WHY US PATROLS ARE MAKING THINGS WORSE

China believes those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to re-live them – and it has many bitter lessons from which to choose

 

 

examples:

 

. . . the prevailing view in China that its sovereignty should not be compromised by rules written by Western powers at a time when China and many other countries, for that matter, were too weak to stand up for their interests and rights.

The 1951 Treaty of San Francisco, which left open the ownership of Xisha (Paracel), and Nansha (Spratly) islands in the South China Sea, is one prime example. China, which has long claimed sovereignty over these islands, was not even invited to the deliberations led by the US and Britain under the auspices of the United Nations to formalise the return of what Japan plundered from the countries they conquered during the Pacific War.

 

# During the First Opium War that ended in 1842, the British Navy had total control of the waters off the Chinese coast and could attack any Chinese port or city at will. For example, in August 1841, sailing from Hong Kong, it took only 53 days to move north and capture Xiamen, Zenghai, Ningbo and several other Chinese coastal cities. In contrast, the Chinese forces, relying on land defence, needed 40 days just to move troops and cannons from one province to the neighbouring one.

 

# On August 3, 1900, to protect foreigners living in Beijing who felt threatened by rioters calling themselves Righteous Boxers, an International Alliance of Eight Imperialist Powers dispatched just 18,811 men to invade the Chinese capital. Armed with weapons far superior to what the Qing army could muster, they took just 10 days to trounce more than 150,000 Qing defenders and several hundred thousand rioters, and conquer Beijing.

 

[amberjack1234]

Good history lesson Randy. I'll discuss it with the wife when she gets out of the bathroom. Where she likes to spend a lot of time. I've told her that I was going to get her a Lazy Boy chair and a small TV for her in there. :D You think that will result in a mop slap?

[wawster]

Dunno Larry...that's pushing the envelope, slap-wise....

[Randy W]

Don't forget the South China Seas through all this . . .

 

US warships sail near South China Sea islands in move that could anger Beijing

The US officials said the Higgins guided-missile destroyer and the Antietam, a guided-missile cruiser, came within 12 nautical miles of the Paracel Islands

 

 

The US military vessels carried out manoeuvring operations near Tree, Lincoln, Triton and Woody islands in the Paracels, one of the officials said.

The sailing moves come days after US withdrew an invitation to China to attend a major US-hosted naval drill.

The Rim of the Pacific exercise, known as RIMPAC and previously attended by China, was billed as the world’s largest international maritime exercise and held every two years in Hawaii in June and July.

RIMPAC enabled the armed forces of the world’s two largest economies to directly engage with each other.

. . .

Last weekend China’s air force landed bombers on islands in the sea as part of a training exercise, triggering concern from Vietnam and the Philippines.

The ministry reiterated that its building of defence facilities was to protect the country’s sovereignty and legitimate rights, and had nothing to do with militarisation.

 

[Randy W]

from the SCMP on Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/scmp/videos/10156360670309820/

Philippines threatens war with China

South China Morning Post

6 hours ago 

 

Quote

Philippine president Duterte has said "he will go to war" if the natural resources in disputed area are taken by anyone.

 

 

Edited June 3, 2021 by Randy W (see edit history)

[Randy W]

from the SCMP

 

US sends two warships through Taiwan Strait amid heightened tensions with Beijing

The Taiwanese government confirmed that the warships sailed through the waters separating Taiwan and the Chinese mainland on Saturday