jasonzzzz Posted January 31, 2003 Report Share Posted January 31, 2003 I wrote a little computer program to simulate our government’s name check system. The program produced the list of day when each of August interviewees gets the clearance, derived on a few assumptions that are based on the information I saw on this board and 001 site. The assumptions are the followings. Our government accumulates 5000 applicants pending for name check clearance during the period of 5 months, therefore there are 1000 applicants per month are put into the pool pending for clearance. August interviewees are 1000 totally. That means that 50 applicants pass interview every business day. The government randomly picks up 20 applicants a day, and all of the picked ones pass the security check. I called this case as the worst case. At best case, the process speed up by 150%, so 50 applicants can be cleared per day. Best Case Result (improved situation)============Column 1 -- Each business DayColumn 2 -- The number of August interviewee get the clearance on that dayColumn 3 -- The total August interviewee still pending at end of day It needs 73 business day for half 0f our August interviewee to get the clearance. The last August person who get his/her visa will be more than 3 years. 001th 08 992002th 08 984003th 13 971004th 12 959005th 08 951006th 05 946007th 10 936008th 06 930009th 07 923010th 13 910011th 04 906012th 05 901013th 04 897014th 08 889015th 06 883016th 06 877017th 08 869018th 17 852019th 10 842020th 06 836021th 09 827022th 08 819023th 05 814024th 07 807025th 07 800026th 08 792027th 08 784028th 06 778029th 04 774030th 06 768031th 07 761032th 07 754033th 06 748034th 06 742035th 05 737036th 07 730037th 07 723038th 06 717039th 10 707040th 06 701041th 07 694042th 09 685043th 07 678044th 03 675045th 07 668046th 05 663047th 09 654048th 04 650049th 10 640050th 09 631051th 03 628052th 05 623053th 09 614054th 07 607055th 08 599056th 10 589057th 06 583058th 05 578059th 04 574060th 05 569061th 09 560062th 08 552063th 08 544064th 05 539065th 03 536066th 04 532067th 02 530068th 03 527069th 01 526070th 03 523071th 09 514072th 08 506073th 06 500074th 03 497075th 03 494076th 05 489077th 03 486078th 03 483079th 04 479080th 04 475081th 08 467082th 08 459083th 03 456084th 03 453085th 03 450086th 05 445087th 05 440088th 03 437089th 04 433090th 01 432092th 03 429093th 02 427094th 02 425095th 05 420096th 06 414097th 05 409098th 01 408100th 07 401101th 04 397102th 04 393103th 04 389104th 04 385105th 02 383106th 03 380108th 07 373109th 02 371110th 08 363111th 05 358112th 03 355113th 07 348114th 01 347115th 02 345116th 03 342117th 03 339118th 02 337119th 03 334120th 02 332121th 08 324122th 04 320123th 02 318124th 04 314125th 05 309126th 05 304127th 04 300128th 02 298129th 02 296130th 07 289131th 03 286132th 02 284133th 07 277134th 01 276135th 01 275136th 04 271137th 05 266138th 04 262139th 02 260140th 05 255141th 02 253142th 02 251143th 03 248144th 05 243145th 05 238146th 02 236147th 02 234148th 02 232149th 02 230150th 02 228151th 01 227153th 02 225154th 01 224155th 01 223156th 05 218157th 04 214159th 03 211160th 02 209161th 04 205162th 03 202164th 02 200165th 01 199166th 02 197167th 01 196168th 03 193170th 02 191171th 02 189172th 04 185173th 02 183174th 03 180175th 02 178176th 01 177177th 02 175178th 01 174180th 01 173182th 02 171183th 02 169185th 03 166186th 04 162187th 01 161188th 03 158189th 02 156190th 01 155191th 02 153192th 01 152194th 02 150196th 03 147197th 01 146198th 01 145199th 03 142200th 01 141201th 02 139202th 02 137204th 03 134205th 01 133206th 01 132208th 01 131209th 02 129211th 02 127212th 01 126213th 02 124214th 01 123215th 02 121216th 02 119218th 01 118220th 01 117221th 02 115222th 01 114223th 01 113225th 02 111226th 02 109227th 02 107228th 02 105229th 02 103230th 01 102231th 01 101233th 01 100235th 01 099239th 02 097240th 02 095241th 01 094242th 02 092243th 01 091244th 01 090245th 03 087246th 03 084248th 01 083252th 02 081253th 01 080255th 03 077256th 02 075257th 02 073259th 02 071262th 02 069263th 01 068264th 01 067265th 01 066271th 01 065272th 01 064273th 02 062274th 02 060275th 01 059278th 01 058280th 02 056283th 01 055284th 01 054291th 01 053292th 01 052300th 01 051302th 01 050306th 01 049308th 01 048310th 01 047321th 01 046322th 01 045334th 02 043335th 01 042337th 02 040339th 02 038342th 01 037345th 01 036348th 02 034349th 01 033350th 01 032356th 01 031357th 01 030363th 01 029367th 01 028370th 01 027371th 01 026372th 01 025380th 01 024387th 01 023397th 01 022404th 01 021405th 02 019408th 01 018410th 01 017412th 01 016423th 01 015437th 01 014442th 01 013444th 01 012445th 01 011451th 01 010455th 01 009469th 01 008472th 01 007512th 01 006521th 02 004525th 01 003621th 01 002731th 01 001804th 01 000 Worst Case Result (current situation)=============In this case, it needs 15 months for half of August Group to get clearance. And the last person in the group will need to wait 340 years before clearance, if he/she can live that long. I am confident that the results are correct if the assumptions are correct. If any one is interested in this simulator, and knows how to run a perl script, I will post it also. On other hand, if the goverment does the clearcase in order, the last person in August group can get the clearance in 20 work days in the best case and 50 work days in the worst case. Order is critical for us. Randomness is killing us. GZ should take a part of responsibility in keepig the process in order. We believe that the clearance process system is malfunctional. Can you image how the system would be when GZ resubmit all 5000 case without order? If the clearance could handle its massive resubmit, it would not need a resubmittion in the first hand. We demand that for next resubmition, GZ should do for August group first, waiting some peviod, the September Group, and .. in that order. Jason Link to comment
tonado Posted January 31, 2003 Report Share Posted January 31, 2003 Jason, Great analysis. Good point about FIFO. However, the government is ignoring it for now. Link to comment
Mike and Ying Posted January 31, 2003 Report Share Posted January 31, 2003 Wow, very good. Thank you! I hope this will be going to GZ in FEB? Link to comment
sysy Posted January 31, 2003 Report Share Posted January 31, 2003 Oh come on. If the government works as logical as a computer, we would not have had all these problems to start with... Link to comment
Eric&Yuhui Posted February 1, 2003 Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 Oh come on. If the government works as logical as a computer, we would not have had all these problems to start with...good point.Was gonna Top10 about this actually Link to comment
owenkrout Posted February 1, 2003 Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 I can try to make the point, but I doubt that they will be able to follow your scenario. It requires abilities in logic and in reasoning. Link to comment
sysy Posted February 1, 2003 Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 I can try to make the point, but I doubt that they will be able to follow your scenario. It requires abilities in logic and in reasoning.And most of all, common sense.Hmm, I forgot, computer has no common sense. Maybe the government does work like a computer after all Link to comment
Ana Posted February 1, 2003 Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 i think we should use this. if some other computer-minded people could double check the simulation, or come up with their own models, we could use this as evidence. this could be part of all our new letters/faxes to the state department, the media, etc. using this as support, we could demand that the clearances be done in order and that we believe the problem is related to the current system they have in place. what do others think of actually using a model like this to make our point? Link to comment
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