Timeline Posted July 18, 2005 Report Share Posted July 18, 2005 (edited) Upcoming Interview & P4/Interview Projection Tables from July 2005. For the Upcoming Interview Table, I will keep the previous month, the current month, any future month(s) interviews on the table. Also, any previous outstanding cases will remain. Some thoughts: I believe that some (but not all) CR1 cases will receive an earlier P4 date than shown on the Prediction table. I believe this based on member timelines (CR1s) whose show "2nd namecheck complete" before Guangzhou enters the case into the computer or very shortly thereafter. We will have to wait and see if this true P3 for K1 / K3 / CR1(IR1): Why K3 or CR1 is listed on the tablesK1: When Guangzhou sends the P3 packet to the beneficiary (fiancée). No confusion here.K3: When Guangzhou sends the P3 packet to the beneficiary (spouse).CR1: When the beneficiary’s (spouse) case is completed at the NVC. One disconcerting observation in the increase in number of days for all cases from P4 to interview date for the July/August interviews versus the interviews in the first six months of 2005. However, with only eight data points this observation might be invalid. K1/K3 averages (P3 – P4 – interview) are approximately equal with the exception of number of days between P4 and interview date. I am not sure why there would be a difference between K1 versus K3 ??? The Important News Happy to hear the positive news on your case Alex !!! If possible keep us in the loop.We hope success for Xiao Hong & Mike this week at Guangzhou !!! Success on 07/18/05 !!! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ..---------------------------------- Upcoming Interview Date Table ------------------------------------"..CFL_Name.................P3........P4.....Interview..#days..P3-P4..Type.Pass.USC..Comments..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"".Alex..................../../....../../.....12/08/04................K1...No........Case Review..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"".Mike Xiao.............10/28/04..02/08/05...03/11/05...134....103...CR1..Yes..Yes..Success on 07/18/05..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"".krjchen...............12/21/04..05/13/05...06/01/05...162....143...K1...Yes..Yes...".nousername............01/09/05..05/13/05...06/02/05...144....124...K1...Yes..Yes...".wawafish..............01/31/05..05/19/05...06/03/05...123....108...K1...Yes..Yes...".hlin..................11/16/04..05/01/05...06/06/05...202....166...K1...Yes..No....".LiuXia's Husband......12/24/04..04/27/05...06/08/05...166....124...K3...Yes..Yes...".Ron Frank.............12/22/04..04/27/05...06/08/05...168....126...K3...Yes..Yes...".melvin................12/18/04..04/30/05...06/13/05...177....133...K3...Yes..No....".inxy..................01/11/05..05/21/05...06/13/05...153....130...K3...Yes........".Jfong988..............02/21/05..05/21/05...06/13/05...112.....89...K1...Yes.......Received 6/23/05".Dan R.................12/27/04..04/28/05...06/15/05...170....122...K1...Yes..No....".LouRose...............12/28/04..04/29/05...06/16/05...170....122...CR1*.Yes.......DCF".Feathers268...........12/29/04..05/13/05...06/16/05...169....135...K1...Yes..Yes...".john90................01/11/05..05/16/05...06/17/05...157....125...K1...Yes........".lizziedannypie........12/23/04..04/28/05...06/21/05...180....126...CR1*.Yes..No...DCF".jinqutierrez..........01/28/05..05/21/05...06/22/05...145....113...K1...Yes..Yes...".yuehan123.............02/19/05..05/28/05...06/23/05...124.....98...K1...Yes..Yes...".DocMartin817..........01/28/05..05/25/05...06/28/05...151....117...K1...Yes..Yes...".Bahan.................01/05/05..05/27/05...06/29/05...175....142...CR1..Yes..No....".muddy1112.............02/25/05..05/27/05...06/29/05...124.....91...K1...Yes..Yes...".Chinese_Wife!!!.......03/18/05..05/29/05...06/29/05...103.....72...CR1..Yes..Yes...".hayuesen..............12/08/04..04/27/05...06/30/05...204....140...K1...Yes..........--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"".jt1832................05/31/05..06/18/05...07/20/05....50.....18...K3...Yes.......HK".vincent...............02/25/05..06/03/05...07/28/05...153.....98...K3...Yes..Yes.....--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"".alaskagypsy...........03/25/05..06/28/05...08/01/05...129.....95...K1...Yes..Yes...".lucaskeli.............03/25/05..07/07/05...08/03/05...131....104...K3...Yes.......CR1".mild bill.............03/15/05..06/27/05...08/17/05...155....104...K3..............".RICHARDLOVESPING......03/23/05..06/27/05...08/25/05...155.....96...K3..............".F & L.................03/10/05..06/30/05...08/26/05...169....112...K1..............".pkroger...............03/15/05..06/27/05...08/29/05...167....104...K1..............".LanBa.................02/24/05..07/03/05...08/31/05...188....129...K3.............CR1..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"".Jason+Joanna..........04/19/05..08/02/05...09/06/05...140....105...K1..............".wulongtea.............05/13/05..08/03/05...09/06/05...116.....82...K1..............".nygatl15..............04/04/05..07/28/05...09/07/05...156....115...K1..............".DavidZixuan...........04/08/05..07/28/05...09/07/05...152....111...K1..............".riki3742..............04/15/05..08/01/05...09/08/05...146....108...K1..............".buffalopaul...........04/15/05..08/03/05...09/08/05...146....110...K1.............K2".impatient.............04/06/05..07/28/05...09/09/05...156....113...K1..............".Inxsfan...............04/29/05..08/17/05...09/09/05...133....110...K1.............IV Date estimate".yongyuan..............05/12/05..08/03/05...09/12/05...123.....83...K1..............".Luo_Bin_&_Jialu.......04/15/05..08/01/05...09/13/05...151....108...K1..............".Steve_and_Qingging....05/10/05..08/04/05...09/13/05...126.....86...K1..............".chinashawn............03/28/05..07/27/05...09/14/05...170....121...DCF............CR1".ohioboy...............04/15/05..07/27/05...09/14/05...152....103...CR1.............".restlessinsj..........04/18/05..07/29/05...09/14/05...149....102...CR1.............".SongDaJiang...........04/26/05..07/31/05...09/15/05...142.....96...CR1.............".spieder...............04/15/05..08/01/05...09/19/05...157....108...K1..............".DragonFlower..........05/05/05..08/03/05...09/19/05...137.....90...K3.............CR1".jtaylo69..............04/14/05..08/01/05...09/20/05...159....109...K1..............".lynne.................05/10/05..08/03/05...09/21/05...134.....85...K3.............CR1".Mark62................05/27/05..08/03/05...09/22/05...118.....68...K1..............".esun41................04/18/05..08/03/05...09/27/05...162....107...K1..............".Brian_Sharon..........05/05/05..08/03/05...09/28/05...146.....90...K1..............".pkfops................04/08/05..07/30/05...09/29/05...174....113...K1.............P3 mix-up by GZ".Leefisher3............04/13/05..08/01/05...09/29/05...169....110...K1..............".dailyview.............03/28/05..08/03/05...09/29/05...185....128...K1..............".Annie Ray.............04/01/05..07/28/05...09/30/05...182....118...K3.............IV Date estimate..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------" ..................................Historical Average from P3 - P4 - IV (Interview Date)..................................-----------------------------------------------------.....Month(s).(2005)......#..of...One Month Average (days)...Three Month Average (days)..---------------------...Inter...-------------------------...-------------------------....One.........Three.....views...P4 - P3..IV - P3..IV - P4...P4 - P3..IV - P3..IV - P4...Comments..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" January...................32......135......174.......39............................" February...................9......119......161.......42............................" March.......JAN - MAR.....23......127......171.......44.......130......171.......41..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" April.......FEB - APR.....13......112......153.......41.......121......164.......43" May.........MAR - MAY.....16......108......159.......51.......117......163.......46" June........APR - JUN.....20......111......146.......35.......110......152.......42..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" July........MAY - JUL......1.......98......153.......55............................" August......JUN - AUG......7......106......156.......50............................" September...JUL - SEP................................................................---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" October.....AUG - OCT.............................................................." November....SEP - NOV.............................................................." December....OCT - DEC................................................................---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" K1..........APR - AUG.....39..................................109......151.......42" K3..........APR - AUG.....15..................................110......156.......46..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...---------- Nooneufo & Mark Edited August 4, 2005 by Timeline (see edit history) Link to comment
Timeline Posted July 18, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2005 (edited) Predictions A few members have been added to the table along with a few updates. Four members have not received their P4 letter as of this time, which is later than the projected P4. While still within the statistical variance, this is a bit disturbing. I would of thought a few of the members would have received their P4. One member, Littleturtle experienced a "2nd name check" delay, so I guessed at the P4/interview date based on two previous "2nd name check" delay cases. I believed the process was slowly but surely improving (getting shorter) and not getting longer (from P3 to P4). Now it appears to be slowing down, if only temporarily. Only time and more data points will tell if the process is actually improving. I will not change the projected P4/Interview dates since those are our best projections at this time. Going forward, I will change the projected dates based on:1. New information (data points)2. Using a different sampling period (we currently use a three month running average)3. Incorporation of the 011 data points (close to this , will keep you updated)4. A correction in methodology (have made one correction, but this shortened the time frame by a few days so I backed this out). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ..------------------------------ P4 and Interview Date Prediction Table -------------------------------............................................-----Projected-----............CFL_Name.................P3........P4.....Interview..#days..P3-P4..Type..Comments..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------""...........Chad&Tong.............10/04/04..../../......./../..................K1....."...........Zingaro...............10/28/04..../../......./../..................K1....Name Check Delay"...........markandyuping.........12/29/04..../../......./../..................K1....."...........June03................01/11/05..../../......./../...........................---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" August....huang.................03/22/05..07/11/05...08/22/05...153....111...K1....."...........dailyview.............03/18/05..07/15/05...08/24/05...159....119...K1....."...........buffalopaul...........03/26/05..07/14/05...08/25/05...152....110...K1....K2"...........chinashawn............03/28/05..07/15/05...08/25/05...150....109...K3....."...........Littleturtle..........06/27/05..07/15/05...08/26/05................K3....Name Check done"...........sfarkas103............04/01/05..07/20/05...08/31/05...152....110...K1.......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" September.Annie Ray.............03/29/05..07/21/05...09/01/05...156....114...K3....."...........billv.................03/28/05..07/25/05...09/06/05...162....119...K1....."...........Luo_Bin_&_Jialu.......04/05/05..07/25/05...09/06/05...154....111...K1....."...........impatient.............04/06/05..07/25/05...09/06/05...153....110...K1....."...........rosyanne..............04/07/05..07/26/05...09/06/05...152....110...K1....."...........xulei601..............03/30/05..07/27/05...09/07/05...161....119...K1....."...........nygatl15..............04/04/05..07/27/05...09/07/05...156....114...K1....."...........DavidZixuan...........04/08/05..07/27/05...09/07/05...152....110...K1....."...........pkfops................04/08/05..07/27/05...09/07/05...152....110...K1....P3 mix-up by GZ"...........jtaylo69..............04/11/05..07/29/05...09/08/05...150....109...K1....."...........Barey_Jones...........04/11/05..07/29/05...09/08/05...150....109...K1....."...........Brian Sharon..........04/12/05..08/01/05...09/12/05...153....111...K1....."...........Leefisher3............04/13/05..08/01/05...09/12/05...152....110...K1....."...........baogg.................02/14/05..08/03/05...09/14/05...212....170...CR1...."...........riki3742..............04/15/05..08/03/05...09/14/05...152....110...K1....."...........Jason+Joanna..........04/07/05..08/04/05...09/15/05...161....119...K1....."...........aquach................04/16/05..08/04/05...09/15/05...152....110...K1....."...........James.................04/15/05..08/08/05...09/19/05...157....115...K3....."...........Jocelyn...............04/20/05..08/08/05...09/19/05...152....110...DCF...."...........wulongtea.............04/20/05..08/08/05...09/19/05...152....110...K1....."...........esun41................04/18/05..08/10/05...09/21/05...156....114...K1....."...........spieder...............04/15/05..08/12/05...09/21/05...159....119...K1....."...........joenamy...............04/09/05..08/15/05...09/26/05...170....128...CR1...."...........Inxsfan...............04/28/05..08/16/05...09/27/05...152....110...K1....."...........ateam.................04/25/05..08/17/05...09/28/05...156....114...DCF...CR1"...........rthomas...............04/27/05..08/19/05...09/28/05...154....114...K1....."...........jbray.................04/28/05..08/19/05...09/29/05...154....113...DCF...CR1..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" October...yongyuan..............05/12/05..08/30/05...10/11/05...152....110...K1....."...........lynne.................05/10/05..08/29/05...10/12/05...155....111...K3....."...........Steve_and_Qingging....05/18/05..09/06/05...10/17/05...152....111...K1....."...........ohioboy...............05/01/05..09/06/05...10/18/05...170....128...CR1...."...........Mark62................05/27/05..09/14/05...10/26/05...152....110...K1.......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" November..RJZ+JCW...............05/24/05..09/20/05...11/01/05...161....119...K1....."...........audelair..............05/27/05..09/23/05...11/02/05...159....119...K1....Austraiia DCF"...........blsqueaky.............05/19/05..09/23/05...11/03/05...168....127...IR1...Name check require"...........tenfootalbino.........05/21/05..09/26/05...11/07/05...170....128...CR1...."...........amerchin..............06/10/05..09/28/05...11/09/05...152....110...K1....."...........Linbar................04/12/05..09/29/05...11/10/05...212....170...CR1...."...........Mengxin...............06/04/05..10/11/05...11/21/05...170....129...CR1...."...........mlspyl................06/04/05..10/11/05...11/21/05...170....129...CR1...."...........Sarah1031.............06/13/05..10/11/05...11/21/05...161....120...CR1...DCF"...........Randy_W...............06/24/05..10/17/05...11/28/05...157....115...K1....."...........ed_and_ying...........06/29/05..10/17/05...11/28/05...152....110...K1.......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" December..SongDaJiang...........04/26/05..10/20/05...12/01/05...219....177...CR1...."...........James.................05/09/05..10/26/05...12/07/05...212....170...CR1...."...........Tian9426..............07/05/05..11/01/05...12/13/05...161....119.........."...........eeyore................05/09/05..11/02/05...12/14/05...219....177...CR1...."...........raineedaze............07/15/05..11/07/05...12/19/05...157....115...K3....."...........bubbafred10...........05/27/05..11/14/05...12/27/05...214....171...CR1...."...........Toad..................07/23/05..11/14/05...12/27/05...157....114...DCF...CR1..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" January...UtahMale49............06/03/05..11/21/05...01/03/06...214....171...CR1...."...........markdannie............07/16/05..11/21/05...01/03/06...171....128...CR1...."...........goneflying2000........06/10/05..11/28/05...01/09/06...213....171...CR1......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" February..Carl..................07/21/05..01/06/06...02/16/06...210....169...CR1......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------" (#days is from P3 to Interview, more accurate if time reported is P3 entry into computer)Color code for K1/K3/CR1/IR1 P3 or DS-230 at Guangzhou (Top color most accurate)brown.: K1/K3 = P3 received by Guangzhou and entered into the computer. (call DOS, speak to an agent)......: CR1 ..= Case received by Guangzhou and entered into the computer. (call DOS, speak to an agent)blue..: K1/K3 = P3 sent to Guanghou or received by Guangzhou.......: CR1 ..= Case forwarded by the NVC to Guangzhou. (IVR automated message from NVC)green.: K1/K3 = P3 received by CFL member or date on P3 letter.......: CR1 ..= Case completed by the NVC. (IVR automated message from NVC) Edited July 30, 2005 by Timeline (see edit history) Link to comment
HanLi Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 this is so depressing to not be on this list!!!! Link to comment
LeeFisher3 Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 this is so depressing to not be on this list!!!! 138574[/snapback]Try bribery. Link to comment
Timeline Posted July 28, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 28, 2005 A number of minor updates to the Prediction Table to reflect updated P3 date information. Happy to see the P4/Interview dates are arriving after the unexpected delay of a week or two. I have added three members to the Interview Table. Please keep me updated on the new interviews. I hope to see many additional P4s in the next week. Mark Link to comment
Jason+Joanna Posted July 28, 2005 Report Share Posted July 28, 2005 I still haven't gotten a reply from the consulate reguarding our P4. I hope to give you an update soon, however. Link to comment
markndannie Posted July 28, 2005 Report Share Posted July 28, 2005 Hey timeline,called dos and found out we were entered into the computer on July 16th and now waiting for second name check to be returned.Mark Link to comment
impatient Posted July 29, 2005 Report Share Posted July 29, 2005 Got our email from GZ today with an interview date of Sept. 9th Bill Link to comment
HanLi Posted July 29, 2005 Report Share Posted July 29, 2005 Timeline,what great posting you do with these predicitons, and it is wonderful to see some folks getting their interview dates Congratulations to all that are currently scheduled and best wishes to those that will be soon!!! Link to comment
BuffaloPaul Posted July 29, 2005 Report Share Posted July 29, 2005 this is so depressing to not be on this list!!!! 138574[/snapback]Me too - DOS just told me that the interviews are scheduled in batches once a month - so now looks like we've got another month to wait Train has left the station and didn't get a ticket Link to comment
wulongtea Posted July 29, 2005 Report Share Posted July 29, 2005 this is so depressing to not be on this list!!!! 138574[/snapback]Me too - DOS just told me that the interviews are scheduled in batches once a month - so now looks like we've got another month to wait Train has left the station and didn't get a ticket 141505[/snapback]I don't think the past history has shown this pattern, of only being scheduled once a month. So I still think there is hope for those who did not get their recent P4s. At least I remain hopeful! Link to comment
Randy W Posted July 29, 2005 Report Share Posted July 29, 2005 (edited) I posted this somewhere else also - Can we tell yet if they are scheduling more per day or per week than they used to (prior to the move date)? Answered in "P4 Interview Scheduled" topic - thanks Edited July 29, 2005 by Randy W (see edit history) Link to comment
Timeline Posted July 29, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 29, 2005 I have made a number of additions to the Interview Table. I hope I have included all the members whose spouse/fiancee received P4/Interview notification this week. If I missed anyone, let me know. The P4 dates I listed on the Interview Table are not the actual received or P4 letter date. So if you can, please let me know when you received the P4 packet and the date on the letter. I realize this not your top priority, but if you have the time this will help us. This has been a great week for CFL and I hope more will follow next week !!! Mark Link to comment
LeeFisher3 Posted August 1, 2005 Report Share Posted August 1, 2005 Please remove me from the bottom list and move us to the scheduled list. 8/1/2005 P4 mailed9/29/2005 Interview Thanks for all the work you guys put into this. Link to comment
Timeline Posted August 2, 2005 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2005 I think I have all the recent P4/Interview dates added to the Interview Table. I will start a new topic tonight for August and clean the tables. Hope the P4 keep rolling out Guangzhou !!!!! Mark Link to comment
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