Interview/P3 List for 4th Week of May 2005

[frank1538]

Called DOS 1625 05-28.  GUZ entered interview date of June 23.

Trying to sneak one by us? Good luck.

[nooneufo]

Congrats yuehan123 and thanks for the updated time line.

We will bring the list back up to date from the recent data loss, hopefully later today.

 

Here is a chart showing the last 73 people who have gotten an Interview from both CFL and 001 in their P3 relational date order.

CFL data points are in bright blue.

The one bright green data point appears to be a pregnancy on 001.

Certainly the trend is downward, but how much more to be expected for the next month? Next week should tell us. My estimation is the continued general trend of two weeks (per month average), but could be three or more weeks based on the last two CFL dates and last ten 001 dates.

However, here are the last 14 received P4's from 001 in P3 date order. First number is days from P3 to Interview, the second number are days from P3 to P4. (This matches the chart below of the last 14 data points so that you can see the relationship between the one CFL data point and the lacking CFL data for the rest of the matching time period.)

 

129 97

124 98 (CFL Member)

131 97

125 86

120 91

125 91

125 91

124 91

112 73

108 77

94 63

122 55 (July Interview Date)

78 49 (Pregnancy?)

69 44

 

 

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/Last73V2.gif

[BuffaloPaul]

001 is buzzing about "the speedup". My SO thinks she will get her P4 any day

[david_dawei]

nooneufo... this is interesting.. the P3-P4 is faster, not necessarily the P4-Interview.

 

And this is prior to any move... I would think the move is adding more windows (as rumored) which would speed up the P4-Interview, then also allowing P3-P4 to speed up more.

 

What do you account for the speedup prior to any more windows?

 

What is the date of the oldest point on this graph, so how long has this trend been occurring and a specific reason why you choose this many points to go back?

[nooneufo]

The P4 to Interview has always been a constant. This makes sense, because you need to give the beneficiary some time to get a plane ticket and and make job arrangements, as realistically, a person's life is complex and you can not expect them to show up at a moments notice. I don't know how this works for the faster student and tourist visa, but since they appear to get to call for themselves to schedule their interview, this is probably the difference. Perhaps someone else has more information on this process..

 

The P3 to P4 more realistically tracks, for the people who have given me the actual dates on their P3 and P4 letters. Take that as another plea to all readers to please provide the actual dates on your P3 and P4 letter in the upper right hand corner of these two letters.

 

In my opinion, the speed up is not directly related the increase in windows (no, not Microsoft). We can note that if they are moving the weekend of the 18th, that there is no notable affect on the number of interviews for the month of June after this date. 34 Interviews before June 18th and 33 Interviews after June 20th. (For both CFL and 001).

 

In general, we know the average name check takes 30 to 60 days from the little data reported. Realistically, at any time, they can choose to move this class of visa interviews forward if they wish to, but probably limited by this name check process which is out of Guz's hands. By doing it incrementally, like any organization, they can do so by following some internal plan. We get to see this plan result, based on the data reported. Can they suddenly make it much less time? Why not? How about an interview scheduled the moment the name check is passed? However, my feeling on the numbers is the time is set by the date of the P3 letter, x number of days must pass, then a check to see if name check is cleared.

 

The oldest point on the graph is on the title, 11/01/04 dated P3.

 

I arbitrarily chose this point trying to keep the graph readable. Older posts have similar graphs running back to June 2004, but I am trying for a simpler one to look specifically at the comparsion to show the probable decrease, which appears to be more per month than the usual two weeks. This graph in particular, combines the data from both sites together, with my extrapolation as to the likely dates being used to try and get them both to be line with each other. I believe I have this as close as possible without my SO here to help me extract more specifc answers on the Chinese side to clear up certain questions.

I think I noted before CFL got crunched this week, that the rapid decrease in interview time could simply be a stack of papers getting shifted in order, and so lucky for them. However, we do have concrete data showing a general decrease in the wait time, so I prefer to go with that.

The general downward trend has been happening since July P3's, up to November. In December, there was a set back, an now we are just now where we were in November, and if what we see at 001 is correct, it should continue. Sunny unless it rains.

 

Here are 14 peoples P3 to P4 letter dates number of days between the two dates. The date listed being their P3. The problem is I still do not have enough, and I have to guess for half of these. The ones that have a question mark means I have only one of the two letter dates, the other date I make an extrapolation based on the data given.

 

11/08/04 113

12/03/04 137

12/04/04 115 ?

12/06/04 112 ?

12/08/04 140

12/10/04 109

12/13/04 127

12/21/04 143 ?

12/22/04 126

12/23/04 126

12/28/04 122

01/09/05 124 ?

01/11/05 125 ?

01/31/05 108

 

Overall, I am constantly shaking my head at the thought that the American side of these relationships in general is so socially backward that we can not get the number of reports to at least match the ones on 001. It's kind of embarrassing to explain that America is socially immature to foreigners. (Except to Europeans, they know this already).

[david_dawei]

I didn't mean any adde windows had occurred yet.. only a future potential speed increase..

 

You mention June 18 as a reference for moving, but seems we established in some thread that it is not set at July 18 as an announcement of the move (?)...

 

The one discrepancy I see with 001 is their many P3 february dates compared to ours.. is this just different accounting of dates?

[nooneufo]

Hmmm, well since the consulate does not have on their web page that they are moving, I suppose we could assume there is no move until otherwise noted. However, when I was at the window, one answer I got to my question was that the consulate will be in a new location on June 22nd. This could have been a blow off answer, as after all, this is usually the kinds of answers than seem to be the norm. But on the other hand, that could have just been the hopeful idea at the time. Things change, things happen. I am thinking that yes, we could see an effect from the move, or we already did last month. Or we will see one in the future. Only the Great and Powerful Guz knows.

 

However, one would expect, that those who have received their interview dates after June 22nd, would have told us that their appointment is somewhere else other than on Shaiman Island. Going further, I will assume no move is made, or being made until someone with an appointment letter tells us they have such a letter. Or their web page tells us. But since their web page tells us that the news of mailing of visas is to start April 27th, but the news of this is not posted until May 5th, perhaps we will know of this move a few weeks after it is completed. (Okay, maybe I am a little critical, since I do know they posted it earlier, just being funny).

 

Yes, a different accounting of dates, but I think after this we will just post based on a consolidated pattern based on the extrapolation of P3 letter dates/P3 computer entry dates for both.

 

 

Interview/P3 list for 1st week of June 2005.

 

Good luck to everyone for the next week.

 

Need the dates in the upper left hand corner of

your P3 and P4 letters please from 2004-2005.

 

 

Let us know of changes and additions.

 

Updates added to this post (22May05 3am) :

P4 list updated to reflect new trend.

Yes, it is very optimistic.

 

jinqutierrez got interview

 

Updates to the post (24May05 1:00am)

 

John90 - P4 and Interview dates

Jgrier5 - Interview success

giddyup888 - P3 date

darianstarfire - P3 and Interview date

 

Updates to the post (24May05 3:00am)

darianstarfire=lizziedannypie=DCF

vibes1313 - Interview success

 

Updates to the post (28May05 3:00am)

Data update lost to CFL crash

dmaddox74 - Interview success

fhtb - Interview success

squid - Interview success

Keith-N-Min - Interview success

Lassletter - Interview success

yuehan123 - received P4

Littleturtle - Name check delay

 

 

 

(actual P3 to P4 received is as reported, not corrected for Monday/Tuesday Theory)

Unresolved (We are not going to forget)

 

CFL_Name-----------------P3--------P4------Interview--#days--P3-P4--Type-USC--Slip---Comments

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mari------------------07/15/04-------------------------------------------------------Name-check done on 04/13/05

Alex---------------------------------------12/08/05--------------------------Blue----Case Review

Deekdoken----------------------------------------------------------------------------Admin Processing ???

Zingaro---------------11/05/04-------------------------------------------------------Name Check Delay

Mike_Xiao-------------10/28/04--02/08/05---03/11/05----134----103---CR1--Yes-Blue----No explanation on slip

animejpop-------------10/10/04--03/08/05---04/13/05----185----149---K1---------------No information yet

jual_3----------------??/??/??--02/28/05---04/18/05----???-----98---K1---------------No information yet

Littleturtle----------01/28/04-------------------------------------------------------Name Check Delay

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

Listed by upcoming Interview.

CFL_Name-----------------P3--------P4------Interview--#days--P3-P4--Type-USC--Slip---Comments

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

jgrier5---------------12/01/04--04/01/05---05/23/05----173----121---CR1------Passed--Updated

steve&wei-------------12/27/04--03/31/05---05/23/05----147-----94---IR1

dmaddox74-------------12/07/04--03/29/05---05/24/05----168----112---K3---Yes-Passed--Updated

vibes1313-------------12/20/04--03/29/05---05/24/05----155-----99---K1---Yes-Passed--Updated

fhtb------------------12/19/04--03/28/05---05/25/05----158----100---K1---Yes-Passed--Updated

Squid-----------------12/07/04--04/20/05---05/25/05----169----134---K1---Yes-Passed--Updated

Keith-N-Min-----------01/05/05--04/20/05---05/25/05----140----105---K1---Yes-Passed--Updated

Lassletter------------01/06/05--04/19/05---05/25/05----139----103---K3---Yes-Passed--Updated

hank------------------12/20/04--03/25/05---05/26/05----157-----95---K1

giddyup888------------02/14/05--05/21/05---05/26/05----101-----96---CR1--------------You said next Thursday ?

jimglot---------------12/08/04--03/31/05---05/31/05----174----113---K1

someonesbrother-------12/13/04--03/25/05---05/31/05----169----102---K1

peterscat/Icebreaker--12/27/04--03/28/05---05/31/05----155-----91---K1

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

krjchen---------------01/15/05--05/17/05---06/01/05----137----122---K1

nousername------------01/12/05--05/16/05---06/02/05----141----124---K1

MarsofBorg------------??/??/05--05/20/05---06/02/05----???----???---??

wawafish--------------01/31/05--05/19/05---06/03/05----123----108---K1

hlin------------------01/13/05--05/01/05---06/06/05----144----108---K1

Liuxia's Husband------01/06/05--04/27/05---06/08/05----153----111---K3

Ron_Frank-------------01/06/05--04/27/05---06/08/05----153----111---K3

melvin----------------01/20/05--05/01/05---06/13/05----144----101---K1

inxy------------------01/15/05--05/21/05---06/13/05----149----126---K3

DanR------------------12/29/04--04/28/05---06/15/05----168----120---K1

LouRose---------------01/11/05--04/29/05---06/16/05----156----108---DCF

Feathers268-----------01/07/05--05/13/05---06/16/05----160----126---K1

John90----------------01/11/05--05/20/05---06/17/05----157----125---K1---------------Updated

lizziedannypie--------01/05/05--04/30/05---06/21/05----180----126---DCF--------------K3- lizziedannypie=darianstarfire

darianstarfire--------12/30/04--04/30/05---06/21/05----180----126---DCF--------------CR1 darianstarfire=lizzydannypie

jinqutierrez----------01/28/05--05/21/05---06/22/05----145----113---K1

yuehan123-------------03/11/05--05/24/05---06/23/05----124----98----K1

hayuesan--------------01/05/05--04/27/05---06/30/05----204----140---K1

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

This list reflects the Monday/Tuesday theory and earliest guess. P4 is the guess of the date on the Interview letter. P3 to P4 is how many days between.

Calculations are so that you can compare to real numbers above. This week reflects the new consulate and recent speed increase.

 

 

November-- Zingaro---------------10/28/04--05/31/05---07/12/05---257----215---K1---------------Name Check Delay

---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------

December-- Chad&Tong-------------10/04/04--05/31/05--------------281----239---K1

---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------

January--- Bahan-----------------12/01/04--05/31/05---------------------174---CR1

---------- Bahan-----------------12/29/04--05/31/05---------------------146---CR1

---------- Bahan-----------------01/05/05--05/31/05---------------------139---CR1

---------- June03----------------01/11/05--05/31/05---------------------133---K1

---------- markandyuping---------01/12/05--05/31/05---------------------132---K1

---------- jinqutierrez----------01/28/05--05/31/05---------------------116---K1

---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------

February-- Littleturtle----------01/28/05--05/31/05---------------------98----K3---------------Name Check Delay

---------- jfong988--------------02/25/05--05/31/05---------------------88----K1

---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------

March----- baogg-----------------03/01/05--05/31/05---------------------84----K3

---------- baogg-----------------02/03/05--05/31/05---------------------110---CR1

---------- benefanfan------------03/03/05--05/24/05---------------------82----K3

---------- benefanfan------------03/18/05--05/24/05---------------------67----CR1

---------- DocMartin817----------03/03/05--05/24/05---------------------82----K1

---------- mild_bill-------------03/08/05--05/24/05---------------------77----K1

---------- F_&_L-----------------03/10/05--05/24/05---------------------75----K1

---------- vincent---------------03/11/05--05/24/05---------------------74----K3

---------- pkfops----------------03/21/05--05/24/05---------------------64----K1

---------- dailyview-------------03/18/05--05/24/05---------------------67----K1

---------- huang-----------------03/22/05--05/24/05---------------------63----K1

---------- RICHARDLOVESPING------03/23/05--05/24/05---------------------62----K3

---------- alaskagypsy-----------03/25/05--05/24/05---------------------60----K1

---------- rikj3742--------------03/26/05--05/24/05---------------------59----K1

---------- xulei601--------------03/31/05--05/24/05---------------------54----K1

---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------

April----- Annie Ray-------------04/01/05--05/24/05---------------------53----K3

---------- billv-----------------04/02/05--05/24/05---------------------52----K1

---------- DavidZixuan-----------04/08/05--05/24/05---------------------46----K1

---------- nagat715--------------04/04/05--05/24/05---------------------50----K1

---------- impatient-------------04/08/05--05/24/05---------------------48----K1

---------- Luo_Bin_&_Jian--------04/08/05--05/24/05---------------------46----K1

---------- tenfootalbino---------03/18/05--05/24/05---------------------67----CR1

---------- tenfootalbino---------03/30/05--05/24/05---------------------55----CR1

---------- tenfootalbino---------04/14/05--05/24/05---------------------40----CR1

---------- buffalopaul-----------04/15/05--08/02/05---------------------39----K1

---------- rosyanne--------------04/15/05--08/09/05---------------------39----K1

---------- aquach----------------04/16/05--08/08/05---------------------38----K1

---------- joenamy---------------12/17/04--05/17/05---------------------158---CR1

---------- joenamy---------------02/06/05--06/21/05---------------------107---CR1

---------- joenamy---------------04/09/05--08/09/05---------------------45----CR1

---------- Mari------------------04/13/05--05/24/05---------------------41----K1---------------Name Check Delay

---------- jtaylo69--------------04/14/05--05/24/05---------------------40----K1

---------- Brian_Sharon----------04/17/05--05/24/05---------------------37----K1

---------- Jason+Joanna----------04/19/05--05/24/05---------------------35----K1

---------- Jocelyn---------------04/20/05--05/24/05---------------------34----K1

---------- esun41----------------04/28/05--05/24/05---------------------26----K1

---------- James-----------------04/19/05--05/24/05---------------------12----K3

---------- James-----------------04/25/04--05/24/05---------------------29----CR1

---------- Chinese_Wife!!!-------02/14/05--05/24/05---------------------99----CR1

---------- Chinese_Wife!!!-------03/11/05--05/24/05---------------------74----CR1

---------- mlspyl----------------03/10/05--05/24/05---------------------75----CR1

---------- mlspyl----------------03/24/05--05/24/05---------------------61----CR1

---------- mlspyl----------------05/12/05--05/24/05---------------------12----CR1

---------- Mengxin---------------03/08/05--05/24/05---------------------77----CR1

---------- Mengxin---------------04/12/05--05/24/05---------------------42----CR1

---------- blsqueaky-------------04/17/05--05/24/05---------------------37----IR1

---------- eeyore----------------04/18/05--05/24/05---------------------36----CR1

---------- lynne-----------------04/21/05--05/24/05---------------------33----CR1

---------- lynne-----------------05/10/05--05/24/05---------------------14----K3

---------- SongDaJiang-----------04/15/05--05/24/05---------------------39----CR1

---------- SongDaJiang-----------04/26/05--05/24/05---------------------28----CR1

---------- wulongtea-------------04/26/05--05/24/05---------------------11----K1

---------- jbray-----------------04/28/05--05/24/05---------------------26----CR1

---------- Inxsfan---------------04/29/05--05/24/05---------------------25----..

---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------

May------- amerchin--------------05/13/05--05/24/05---------------------11----K1

---------- Linbar----------------04/12/05--05/24/05---------------------42----CR1

---------- marknda

[nousername]

wow, nooneufo, this last chart was great. nice work!

 

IMHO, i this should be the standard for you charts you *publish*. i think this one is much more readable than the "by week of month" ones.

 

Ryan

[david_dawei]

Here is the consulates latest info on the move:

 

Overcome Collection Hours

 

Our overcome document collection hours will be changed to 2pm - 3pm any Monday through Wednesday (except holidays) beginning May 16, 2005.

 

Our consular services are moving to a new location; schedule changes and the new location address will be announced by July 18. For the latest updates, please check our website:

 

http://www.usembassy-china.org.cn/guangzho...hou/iv/new.html

 

 

 

Just to give credit.. Ed pointed this out in another post..

[ed and ying]

Nooneufo, thanks for your good work !!! It would be great if things were getting significantly faster !!! For now, I will say nothing to Ying about a speed-up - learned my lesson when a bunch of folks at Nebraska sprinted ahead, but I was left behind. And likewise waiting at DHL in GZ

[david_dawei]

For now, I will say nothing to Ying about a speed-up - learned  my lesson when a bunch of folks at Nebraska sprinted ahead, but I was left behind.  And likewise waiting at DHL in GZ

Ed. I think this is smart to do... I prefer to shield Zixuan from any up and down info and pass along conservatively... I even pushed back the date a month at one point since I thought I was too aggressive in my own estimates..

[nooneufo]

Oh...tee-hee, you mean that little note obscurly buried within the text of a subject to do with something else entirely.

I gave that the proper attention it deserved.

 

I suppose the moving of the consulate really is a small thing of note, and we need not be concerned.

 

While I was tracking waiting for our P4, I kept my SO up to date with the latest trends, cautioning along the way that it could move sooner, or later, and this was part of our phone discussions so we always had something to talk about if we ran out of things that day. Her life, and my life are not that easy to change on a consulate whim, and we needed as much heads up as possible to plan.

[BuffaloPaul]

For now, I will say nothing to Ying about a speed-up - learned  my lesson when a bunch of folks at Nebraska sprinted ahead, but I was left behind.  And likewise waiting at DHL in GZ

Ed. I think this is smart to do... I prefer to shield Zixuan from any up and down info and pass along conservatively... I even pushed back the date a month at one point since I thought I was too aggressive in my own estimates..

I'm on the receiving end of each new announcement posted on 001. Maybe she should sheild me

[david_dawei]

For now, I will say nothing to Ying about a speed-up - learned  my lesson when a bunch of folks at Nebraska sprinted ahead, but I was left behind.  And likewise waiting at DHL in GZ

Ed. I think this is smart to do... I prefer to shield Zixuan from any up and down info and pass along conservatively... I even pushed back the date a month at one point since I thought I was too aggressive in my own estimates..

I'm on the receiving end of each new announcement posted on 001. Maybe she should sheild me

ask her what criteria she follows for deciding to tell you or not about the new.... on second thought, drop that idea !

[muddy1112]

I have learned through my Senator's office that they will soon be moving the consular section to a new location and that they've increased the numbers of interviews for some visa categories (including K1) because they want to complete as many cases as possible before the move.