Interview/P3 List for 3rd Week of May 2005

[nooneufo]

"July week 1 is about 150.. what does that mean in relation to July week 1?"

 

If you read the title along the axis "# of days P3 to P4", this is the average number of days for that 1st week from the date of the P3 to the date of the P4.

 

Possibly this is not clear with out monitoring the situation from month to month. But there is a pattern of how Guz sends out the P4's, month to month, week to week. I have to generalize the pattern from the data available, some of which is lacking. (Using less than 2 percent of all interviews to guess the rest)

What I do is divide the month of each P3 series of dates into four weeks.

1st through 7th

8th through 14th

15th through 21st

22nd through end

I average each week into one number. This is why there are four data points, one for each week.

In the case of the last chart, I apply my MT theory to take out the holidays and weekends. I check this against my constant, of the previous data versus the current weeks P4's to see if the trend still holds true.

How did I arrive at this formulation? I tried every method until there was a consistant pattern from month to month.

 

I think this pattern is not quite correct, because as of yet, not everyone is reporting the same set of dates. This chart reflects me guessing these dates to correct for lack of data. I have tried creating a different sort of chart, but until I get more accurate dates, it always appears random. For example, I will post an old chart below of some data organized by interview dates instead.

 

I am hopeful that Guz will suddenly speed up, thereby removing the need for accurate reporting. If you believe that, don't tell us the dates printed on your P3/P4. If you are a questioner of authority, a letter sender to DOS, or an emailer to Guz, send me the dates on your P3/P4 letters for everyone from now back to July 2004.

 

 

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/P3P4Interview.gif

 

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/P3Interview.gif

[david_dawei]

What's the fiscal start, January? The graph tells me that the last quarter (oct-dec) is fastest... and usually later in the month... maybe to 'catch up' at the end of each year...

 

I'd prefer to see the trend over time. What was the last three years... Then we would see speed up and slow down... I'm still not sure what this kind of trend gives us or the point of it.

[nooneufo]

Before July P3 of 2004 , the average wait between P3 to P4 was 60 days or less. Simply put, before July 2004, the data is of no use to the current method they use today. Just as the data before that, which was horrible, has no usefulness of the list, which is where you are in relation to others. If I remember, there was a sudden halt to all interviews until they installed new equipment, hence the real concern we would see the same thing, while they move said equipment. I think we are seeing this won't be a problem.

There is no yearly trend, only the trend from July until now, month to month.

The point, is to those waiting for an interview. Before John and Hai Yan and a couple other people who did some lists, everyone was basically clueless as to what was happening, and speculation ran rampant. (This is only my opinion, because at the time, I wanted a better estimate of the likely interview, or more importantly, when I would know when the interview was, ie the P4. I felt that everyone was clueless, and hard numbers would be more satisfactory, to calm the fear of whether one should be getting a p4, or is one somehow delayed). Tracking, allows for a much better guess, as can easily be seen by those who now guess for themselves the likely date. Before we would extrapolate the increase in speed, but had dropped it back due to the slowdown. Next weeks list will again show speed up extrapolation, since they seem to be back onto the two week increase per month.

 

Next up, a chart to compare CFL to 001 reporting, not everyone reports the same thing.

 

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/001P3toP4.gif

 

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/001P3toInterview.gif

 

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/comparecflto001.gif

[yuehan123]

The point, is to those waiting for an interview. ... I felt that everyone was clueless, and hard numbers would be more satisfactory, to calm the fear of whether one should be getting a p4, or is one  somehow delayed).

nooneufo-

 

I think your hard data timelines, data and explanations are superb. In another time I used to present graphs to business managers. No matter how I explained and labeled the charts and the data someone would ask "But, what does it mean?" I suppose it's natural for the data to make sense to the compiler and not so much sense to a casual observer.

[david_dawei]

The point, is to those waiting for an interview. ... I felt that everyone was clueless, and hard numbers would be more satisfactory, to calm the fear of whether one should be getting a p4, or is one  somehow delayed).

nooneufo-

 

I think your hard data timelines, data and explanations are superb. In another time I used to present graphs to business managers. No matter how I explained and labeled the charts and the data someone would ask "But, what does it mean?" I suppose it's natural for the data to make sense to the compiler and not so much sense to a casual observer.

And what's really sad is that I have done data analysis for years and program in Excel and Access to manuipulate data.. and I'm asking !

[yuehan123]

But the all-knowing GUZ has fogged our minds and forced us into the Twilight Zone so we cannot see what we think we see nor know what we dunno.

[david_dawei]

But the all-knowing GUZ has fogged our minds and forced us into the Twilight Zone so we cannot see what we think we see nor know what we dunno.

The GUZ Zone (GZ)... stepping into an indeterminable process..